For
those of you not of a totally nautical persuasion, I should perhaps clarify my
remark about Diamond Bob being a “serial pincher”. I did not mean to imply that
he had or has a penchant for grabbing the flesh (of ladies’ derrières, for example)
twixt thumb and forefinger. “Pinching” in the yachting context means steering a
course that is closer than ideal, given the rig (or if you like, in Diamond
Bob’s case the cut of his jib), to achieve that elusive objective of the
optimal VMG to windward, aka to weather. “Sailing too close to the wind” is the
Old Lady’s terminology and banking metaphor but “pinching” is linguistically
much more economical. As far as I know, Bob has never worked for the BBC; where
I believe the other kind of pinching is endemic. I believe “spanker” is also in
nautical usage; though since it is a generally downwind piece of canvas, only
experts can pinch and deploy the spanker at the same time.
It
was a very bad day at the office yesterday for that nice, urbane, ex London
optometrist, Bashir al-Assad, bin Haffez al-Assad. A substantial clique of his
closest rels and buddies were inconvenienced with extreme prejudice while
plotting further mayhem for their perceived enemies (any non card-carrying
Alawite or close relative by marriage thereof inside or near Syria’s borders).
Hard to feel too sorry for those in proximity to the blast. But very brave of
Assad to summon up the courage within 36 hours or so of the detonation to be
shown on Syrian TV swearing in the Army CoS as Defense Minister. How did they
know there wasn’t another bomb in the flower pot?
According
to press reports the redoubtable Wolfie Schäuble today successfully persuaded
the Bundestag to approve Germany’s contribution to the Brussels sandbagging
Spanish bank bailout. It seems the approved motion makes it quite clear that
the terms are as stated by the Bu-Bank and bear no relationship to the deal
that the other infamous Troika (Hollande, Monti and Rajoy) – the lame ones –
believed they had extracted from die Kanzlerin. It appears they mistook the
nodding of her head at 4.00am to be accession to their sandbag. Either way,
Spain, the Sovereign is on the hook. Whether the loan can in practice ever be
drawn on is another interesting question and we must await publication of the
conditions precedent buried somewhere in the small print (helpfully written in
German and subject only to Bu-Bank interpretation). It cannot bode well that
the Bundestag approval relied on opposition SDP votes for passage. Doubtless
you are all much better informed than I but it remains to me a mystery how this
much-debated Spanish bank bail-out is going to work. Or is it a bail-in?
(What’s the difference – sounds like heads I lose, tails the Bu-Bank wins? –
Ed). The EFSF funds go to the Spanish bad bank fund – as a loan at
interest? But guaranteed by the Sovereign, that we know. A guarantee we also
know to be essentially worthless. Not to worry, the funds are then transferred
to the relevant banks. As equity, senior debt, subordinated debt, mezzanine
debt with warrants, pref stock, via a holding company, or to repeat myself as
bowls of paella? How do these EFSF funds rank relative to the man on the
Barcelona omnibus’ checking account cash deposits. Many of these worthies in
recent and very living memory were suckered into buying instruments of some
sort (torture?) from these self-same banks, touted as sound high-yielding
investments, only now to find they are being bailed-in and rendered worthless.
Anything more conducive to a run to the bank, followed immediately by a run on
the bank would be hard to devise.
Poor
Super Mario 1 Monti. Right at the worst moment, up pops Il Regno di Sicilia
with a threat to fail to pay its bills or make payroll. Ambrose tells us that
the sitting Governor of the Autonomous Region, Rafaele Lombardo, is under
investigation for Cosa Nostra links. You think! Thus do the Euro-Club-Med
dominoes fall. The entire Mezzogiorno is trembling.
All
facetious sarcasm and other high forms of witticism aside, the fate of Spain does
appear – in spite of distracting explosions in Damascus and melodrama in
Palermo – to be hanging by a thread tonight. In most recent photos it appears
Rajoy hasn’t shaved for a week or so. Unemployment is reported to top 32% in
Extremadura and public servants paraded in the streets throughout Spain today –
no doubt during office hours – so who can blame him. The IMF is busy throwing
fuel on the fire and clamoring for “more Europe” (little tax-cheater Timmy
Geithner conducting the choir, no doubt), as the only way to appease the gods,
the bond vigilantes, and those who would take their Euro’s and place them in
the mattress, if they can’t get to the Bu-Bank first. The large fly in the
IMF’s ointment and unguent is that Das Volk appears to be up to here with the
amount of Europe they already have and are not exactly clamoring to take on
more. The Court in Karlsruhe is studying tea leaves and is not about to release
a cloud of white doves. Who knows what conversations are going on behind the
German curtain? The Bu-Bankers have probably confiscated Die Kanzlerin’s
passport to ensure she stays in Berlin where they can protect her from any more
flying sandbags.
So
the Euro-drama in umpteen acts continues to unfold. The players are exhausted,
the orchestra is asleep in the pit, the conductor’s baton barely twitches, the
director is tearing his hair and the prompter went home days ago. Bring on the
Epilogue before we all die of boredom. Or perhaps the dog days of August will
arrive first and we can all decamp to our hammocks in the sun; there to
recharge our depleted batteries and return in September for - more of the same.
Simon
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