Thursday, July 19, 2012

Pincher & Spanker

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100018824/germanys-twin-euro-martyrs-tell-merkel-to-put-up-or-break-up/





For those of you not of a totally nautical persuasion, I should perhaps clarify my remark about Diamond Bob being a “serial pincher”. I did not mean to imply that he had or has a penchant for grabbing the flesh (of ladies’ derrières, for example) twixt thumb and forefinger. “Pinching” in the yachting context means steering a course that is closer than ideal, given the rig (or if you like, in Diamond Bob’s case the cut of his jib), to achieve that elusive objective of the optimal VMG to windward, aka to weather. “Sailing too close to the wind” is the Old Lady’s terminology and banking metaphor but “pinching” is linguistically much more economical. As far as I know, Bob has never worked for the BBC; where I believe the other kind of pinching is endemic. I believe “spanker” is also in nautical usage; though since it is a generally downwind piece of canvas, only experts can pinch and deploy the spanker at the same time.

It was a very bad day at the office yesterday for that nice, urbane, ex London optometrist, Bashir al-Assad, bin Haffez al-Assad. A substantial clique of his closest rels and buddies were inconvenienced with extreme prejudice while plotting further mayhem for their perceived enemies (any non card-carrying Alawite or close relative by marriage thereof inside or near Syria’s borders). Hard to feel too sorry for those in proximity to the blast. But very brave of Assad to summon up the courage within 36 hours or so of the detonation to be shown on Syrian TV swearing in the Army CoS as Defense Minister. How did they know there wasn’t another bomb in the flower pot?

According to press reports the redoubtable Wolfie Schäuble today successfully persuaded the Bundestag to approve Germany’s contribution to the Brussels sandbagging Spanish bank bailout. It seems the approved motion makes it quite clear that the terms are as stated by the Bu-Bank and bear no relationship to the deal that the other infamous Troika (Hollande, Monti and Rajoy) – the lame ones – believed they had extracted from die Kanzlerin. It appears they mistook the nodding of her head at 4.00am to be accession to their sandbag. Either way, Spain, the Sovereign is on the hook. Whether the loan can in practice ever be drawn on is another interesting question and we must await publication of the conditions precedent buried somewhere in the small print (helpfully written in German and subject only to Bu-Bank interpretation). It cannot bode well that the Bundestag approval relied on opposition SDP votes for passage. Doubtless you are all much better informed than I but it remains to me a mystery how this much-debated Spanish bank bail-out is going to work. Or is it a bail-in? (What’s the difference – sounds like heads I lose, tails the Bu-Bank wins? – Ed).  The EFSF funds go to the Spanish bad bank fund – as a loan at interest? But guaranteed by the Sovereign, that we know. A guarantee we also know to be essentially worthless. Not to worry, the funds are then transferred to the relevant banks. As equity, senior debt, subordinated debt, mezzanine debt with warrants, pref stock, via a holding company, or to repeat myself as bowls of paella? How do these EFSF funds rank relative to the man on the Barcelona omnibus’ checking account cash deposits. Many of these worthies in recent and very living memory were suckered into buying instruments of some sort (torture?) from these self-same banks, touted as sound high-yielding investments, only now to find they are being bailed-in and rendered worthless. Anything more conducive to a run to the bank, followed immediately by a run on the bank would be hard to devise.

Poor Super Mario 1 Monti. Right at the worst moment, up pops Il Regno di Sicilia with a threat to fail to pay its bills or make payroll. Ambrose tells us that the sitting Governor of the Autonomous Region, Rafaele Lombardo, is under investigation for Cosa Nostra links. You think! Thus do the Euro-Club-Med dominoes fall. The entire Mezzogiorno is trembling.

All facetious sarcasm and other high forms of witticism aside, the fate of Spain does appear – in spite of distracting explosions in Damascus and melodrama in Palermo – to be hanging by a thread tonight. In most recent photos it appears Rajoy hasn’t shaved for a week or so. Unemployment is reported to top 32% in Extremadura and public servants paraded in the streets throughout Spain today – no doubt during office hours – so who can blame him. The IMF is busy throwing fuel on the fire and clamoring for “more Europe” (little tax-cheater Timmy Geithner conducting the choir, no doubt), as the only way to appease the gods, the bond vigilantes, and those who would take their Euro’s and place them in the mattress, if they can’t get to the Bu-Bank first. The large fly in the IMF’s ointment and unguent is that Das Volk appears to be up to here with the amount of Europe they already have and are not exactly clamoring to take on more. The Court in Karlsruhe is studying tea leaves and is not about to release a cloud of white doves. Who knows what conversations are going on behind the German curtain? The Bu-Bankers have probably confiscated Die Kanzlerin’s passport to ensure she stays in Berlin where they can protect her from any more flying sandbags.

So the Euro-drama in umpteen acts continues to unfold. The players are exhausted, the orchestra is asleep in the pit, the conductor’s baton barely twitches, the director is tearing his hair and the prompter went home days ago. Bring on the Epilogue before we all die of boredom. Or perhaps the dog days of August will arrive first and we can all decamp to our hammocks in the sun; there to recharge our depleted batteries and return in September for - more of the same.

Simon

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