Saturday, April 28, 2012

Le Pen est plus puissante que l'épée



After a few days of pondering the tea leaves of the first round of the French presidential election, we now have some distance and objectivity to consider le dénouement de Dimanche le 6ème Mai.

Marine is playing her cards like the savvy pouline française she has become. Ainsi l’homme aux chaussures elevées encourage basement les parieurs de Marine. The polls say François has a 55/45 lead, so the vertically challenged one has some ground to make up in the stretch. Though Marine is no longer in the race she still has une cravache a main.

Most likely Hollande will squeak it at the post, which will mean Die Haus-Frau von dem Osten muss ihre Zähne zusammenbeißen and make the congratulatory call to Paris. The beginning of the end of die herzliche Harmonie (aka entente cordiale).

For those of you following the cut and thrust of UK Coalition politics, the Lib Dems now have one on Camborne OE – to offset the embarrassment of the affaire Chris Huhne. The Dirty Digger News of the Screws saga has exposed the hapless Kultcha’ Secretary, one Jeremy Hunt, as being a pawn in the Digger’s dirty doings. Even worse for Dodgy Dave, it’s clear he’s been pandering to the Clan Digger more than he likes to admit (not to mention riding out on one of the Met’s ponies with the redoubtable Rebekah of the Chipping Norton set). Oi ‘ad that James Murdoch in the back o’ me cab once.

Poor Mr. Huhne. Bad enough that he’s in the dock for requiring his wife to take a speeding rap for him. (It’s the perjury that’ll get ya every time). But it now comes to light that his (former) assistant/lover Carina Trimingham, swings wildly both ways and was in a same sex civil union at the very time Huhne was playing away matches with her. That should keep the “family court” in business for a while.


Sadly for Jeremy, he’s also Sec of Sport, so his downfall will likely preeëmpt his presiding over London12. Tant pis; but carrying water for Dodgy Dave is risky. These OE’s stick together like ….
Hague assures us Neil Heywood OH, was not in the pay of MI6. Not so for poor Gareth Williams of Anglesey whose genius for maths and cryptology somehow led him via GCHQ to be very dead in a piece of locked luggage in his own bath. Leaving a very fine wardrobe of ladies garments and fashion accessories. The inquest continues after disclosing date rape drug GHB (not to be confused with GBH) was found in his system. Was he or was he not an autodidact or was he helped on his way?


A very sad tale that even John Le Carré might not have conjured. Where were the Watchers when Gareth needed to be rescued? When the Brits do spy tragedy, they certainly pull out all the stops.

Thanks to my son-in-law Doug Lodder (Lucy’s Dad), my sometime emanations on affaires current are now consigned to a Blog. It’s all a bit Greek to me. In any event it’s to be found at http://imeffed.blogspot.com/

Its name as you will have immediately recognized is I M Effed. That’s Doug’s idea – probably inspired by the lovely Mme Lagarde. I might have been much less subtle and titled it We R Effed. In any event, please check it out and if perchance feeling bored with time to waste, supply a contentious, irreverent, or tasteless comment (or refutation of any of my nonsense). I’ll be happy to let you use it as an alternative to my emails cluttering up your Junk file.

Happy May Day to all you members of the haute bourgeoisie.

 Simon

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

L’Empereur Boney Parts



Le weekend has given way to open markets and indeed to the resignation of the Dutch cabinet. Geert saw it as the ideal time to drop his bomb on Dutch politics-as-usual (kow-towing to Berlin) and force an election. Ambrose paints in ever more vivid colours his 1931 parallels - the collapse of the Gold Standard, CreditAnstalt Bankverein and in due course of Weimar.

Die Frau Kanzlerin looks like L’Empereur Boney Parts sans vêtements. Hiding behind a cloud of parrots won’t cover her blushes. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9224465/German-Chancellor-Angela-Merkel-defends-austerity-in-face-of-open-rebellion-in-Europe.html


For those of you with access to today’s Wall Street Journal, I commend you to Bret Stephens Op-Ed piece “As Goes France”. A scathing quote will give you the flavor “On the one hand, there is the man-child (incumbent) President who will one day serve as a second object lesson in the perils of raising to high office hyperactive but diminutive men”. “Second” one infers to that other great “leader” Le Nabot Corse. It’s a fair assumption that a copy of the WSJ is not displayed prominently in the ante-chambers of the Élysée.

Meanwhile back in the exciting murder mystery thriller of the Middle Kingdom, we are told that Mrs Bo was present in the room when the hapless Neil Heywood, OH, was force fed with cyanide drops. Maybe Mr. Bo did not order the hit.


The center may not hold for long. Christine can claim she gave it the old patriotic college try and laisser les biscuits tombes si veux.

Les Comédies des Politiques



Well it’s been an interesting weekend of development in Les Comédies des Politiques in Europe. The Euro-fissures are opening wider daily. Geert Wilders has screamed “enough already” and looks like bringing down the Dutch government; which will leave the fiscal compact looking a little uncompacted. Poor Christine.

Though I say it myself, I did implore you to keep a racing eye out for that fine French filly, Marine Le Pen making a strong run down the right. She got her nose to a highly commendable third, right up against Boney’s withers and in the run off she’s now in the powerful position of being the handicapper. Could Napoléon offer her a senior ministry in his next administration? Muslim affairs perhaps. In return for adding some big weights to Francois’ saddle.

Interesting to note Mr. Wen is in Germany and reported as stating loudly that “the crisis is not over”. Could he be referring to l’affaire Bo or the mighty Euro? A very subtle Politburo sense of humour. Ditto for Cristina announcing through her economy minister in DC that the IMF is spending way too much time and resources on the Euro. Its charter is for real basket case countries like Argentina that hasn’t repaid its last bail out from 10 years ago yet. Has them rolling in the IMF aisles (or their eyeballs).

For those keeping score, the Euro has now resulted in régime change in Ireland, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Now add Les Pay Bas. Not a bad record. On May 6th France could be added to the tally. Club Med under almost entirely new management. Maybe they’ll offer Francisco Schettino the job of entertainment supremo.


OK I can hear you groan. With good reason. Yet another photo of the ravishing Christine, sans foulard. I guess she had to press her décolletage into service to keep the eyes of Little Georgie and others on the ball. However, I doubt she’s been reckoning on Geert in Den Haag bringing down the burgher government of The Netherlands. Ambrose quotes Paul Krugman with the first sensible thing I’ve ever heard him utter “The IMF (aka Mme Lagarde) is helping Europe commit suicide”.

Watch out below in the markets at opening tomorrow as the Dutch PM resigns.

Merkozy RIP



Merkozy, RIP. Waiting for the verdict des Français on Psychozy in the first round as we speak. 10 points adrift of the Dutchman and it will be all over bar the counting. Will Snarko ask Marine for her endorsement?

Flash pollsters’ news. Hollande 28 – 29%, Napoléon 25 – 26%, Marine 17 – 20%. Clearly Marine is the moral winner! Boney will claim he’s in striking distance for Round 2 but he’ll need a full court pander to Marine’s shock troops. What orders will Marine give? Vote for Hollande, which will quickly bring France à genoux and then she can offer to clean up the mess?

It will be an unpleasant congratulatory phone call für die Frau Kanzlerin to make to the new Président Hollande on May 7th. Will she call him first, or will he get in his prëemptive demand on Draghi to put the ECB printing presses into over-drive. Will Draghi channel his inner Buba when Jens Weidmann goes postal; and after the go-for-growth billet doux supporting François-the-munificent arrives from Club Med HQ?

Dear Mario, Aiuto! Mariano says Hi. Tuo amigo, Mario.

Meanwhile the Cristina and Christine shows play to full houses in Buenos Aires and DC respectively. Little tax cheater, Geithner has stayed home or under his desk waiting to hear how many of his ATF agents were in flagrante delicto in Cartagena or tried to short the tip. Little smarmy toff Georgie O is totally bewitched and besotted by Christine’s foulard tied around his scrawny neck and has coughed up £10 bil to the bag lady, rainy day fund. Doubtless Georgie is hoping that the small print and finance ministers less susceptible to Christine’s seduction will render the whole “commitment” null and void. In the meantime the Tory back-benches will be a study in hyper-tension, if not spitting blood.





How many photos of the comely Christine can you stand? Get ready, because after 5 years at the IMF shilling for the Euro, she plans on replacing Hollande at l’Élysée! Maybe Hillary will be in the White House and pigs really will be flying.

More on Bo/Heywood/MI6 in the fullness of time. Cannot handle more excitement right now.

Friday, April 20, 2012

Just Plain Crazy



Great picture of Geert Wilders. Crazy name, crazy guy – but very sound on the Euro (Bring back the Gülder).


Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner – crazy name, crazy gal – is upping the ante in the coming war with Spain. “I am a head of state, not a thug”, she has proclaimed. Very disconcerting because I thought that was a sine-qua-non qualification to be President of Argentina (aka The Argentine in English). Cf Videla, Galtieri, Carlos Menem, Nestor himself, not to mention the saintly Juan and his wives. Has Cristina asked Andy L-W to write a new catchy musical?

There was a curious anecdote in a recent report about the Argie’s way of diplomacy and business. Supposedly Hillary Clinton (Sec of State of these mighty United States) after a meeting with Cristina, ordered up a psych profile of the President of all the Argies after being somewhat gob-smacked by the thug/head-of-state’s performance. What wasn’t reported was that Cristina ordered up the same on Hillary (Mena Airport, married to Bill, Whitewater, Monica, Vincent Foster).


The ripples of the Bo/Heywood OH/ Bo Ga Ga/Mrs. Bo (did she or didn’t she have a fling with Neil?) are spreading through the body politic of the Middle Kingdom. Top cop Wang and billionaire Xu are in trouble/the pokey/incommunicado. Due process for all is of course a top priority. Habeas corpus – we do indeed have the body (lots of them in fact). Which involves deciding who is prime candidate for the bullet to the back of the head and instant cremation, with “alcohol induced heart attack” on the death cert. “Off with their heads. Sentence before verdict”, the Queen of Hearts is screaming. Where is Madame Mao when we need her?


If I had a Euro for every Eurocrat and Europol assertion (always issued in all-knowing and stentorian rhetoric) that Spain, absolutely, positively, definitely, definitively and without fear of contradiction … where was I? – oh yes; Spain won’t need a bail-out, I’d have enough Euro’s to bail out Spain myself. And pay for King Juan Carlos new hips; crushed by a falling elephant. (So hard to be a King these days and keep up appearances – especially with a ne’er-do-well son-in-law). Maybe he should send the Armada against Cristina and hope it doesn’t get wrecked off Las Malvinas.

Princeling Mr. Bo, Lovely Christina, German Technical Problems



The ugly side of the post-Maoist Chinese régime, the existence of which was never in doubt, is now really showing through the cracks in the régime’s ability (or rather lack thereof) to control all information media. It should come as no surprise that Mr. Bo assumed and exercised all the attributes of the absolute dictator of 30 million plus people in Chongqing. By virtue of his birth as a princeling (descendants of those closest to one of, if not the, most heinous mass murderer of his own people of all time) he was at liberty (wrong word) to become insanely rich, imprison at will, torture to death and, provided he didn’t somehow cross the PLA, live as the untouchable. His callow, puerile son could roam the country in a Ferrari, pretend to be in education at Harrow, Oxford and now roam Harvard in a Porsche – all on “scholarships”. What was the board of governors of Harrow thinking, let alone the admissions tutor at Balliol? Didn’t they see what happened when the LSE prostituted itself to Gadhafi and his murdering sons; issuing doctoral degrees for dollars and trashing its reputation and that of its Chancellor? Academic licentiousness right up there with “climate science” at the “University” of East Anglia.

Evidently the PLA decided to throw in its lot with the Wen/Hu administration and hang Bo out to dry (or just hang him). Once Mr. Wang had found his way to the US consulate with the story of Bo letting the hit on Heywood; hanging (sic) with Bo became decidedly dangerous. Sauve qui peut.


Pretty photo of the lovely Cristina throwing roses (or carnations) into the sea at Ushuaia to accompany her shill/shrill ambassadress to the Court of St James putting the wood to the Brits in the pages of the DT. That should really win friends and influence people to hand the Falklands over to a Peronist régime for which the rule of law means absolutely nothing. Uniting the Brits and Spain, plus the EU, against a tin-pot semi-third world vaudeville act like Argentina is no mean feat. Cristina, Hugo, Fidel and Raul (with Che applauding) riding into the sunset.


It’s getting very technical in Germany. Target2 clearing problems and the independence of the Bundesbank under the German constitution building a head of steam against Draghi’s bail out of the Spanish banks. Losing Axel Weber was unfortunate; forcing Jens Weidmann out will look like carelessness by the Frau Kanzlerin. And all this before the Hungarian in the Élysée gets his pink slip and golden parachute.

It’s getting uglier by the day. Ignore the other Magyar who broke the Bank of England at your peril. Even Christine’s allure is running into some serious headwinds. Little tax-cheater Geithner knows his head will wind up on a pike if he asks the House for its blessing of a huge new US Treasury to IMF commitment for the express purpose of ….. bailing out the Bundesbank! Poor little Georgie at the Exchequer barely has a pot of his own into which to p—s. But saying no to Christine fluttering her come hither looks will test poor little Georgie O to the limit.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

You Go Girl

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/9207777/IMF-still-wont-admit-truth-about-the-euro.html

Jeremy on De Nile.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9208174/Argentina-to-seize-more-Repsol-assets-than-expected.html

http://news.yahoo.com/eu-voices-concern-over-argentina-ypf-seizure-130015844--finance.html

Cristina – you go girl. Nothing like whacking the Spaniards when they’re down to make friends and influence people. Interesting move pushing the UK and Spain together over the Malvinas (Maldives according to the POTUS). At least Hugo Chavez is a fan. Taking on Spain, the EU, Mexico and that great Euro-heavyweight (avoir-dupois not intellect) Barroso is quite a feat to pull off.

http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/soros-eu-crisis-euro/2012/04/16/id/436042?s=al&promo_code=EAA4-1

More nonsense from the man who broke the Bank of England. “The Euro crisis started as a collapse of the US banking system – then compounded by divergent competitiveness”. Which presumably is Soros-speak for it’s all Dubya’s fault. No suggestion the Euro-crisis started when the French importuned Kohl to sign up for Maastricht as the price of reunifying the FRD and East Prussia.

http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-chinas-bo-backed-then-blocked-murder-probe-104054816.html

A somewhat different take on the Bo/Wang/Heywood “affair”. No suggestion that Bo ordered the hit on Heywood, nor that the “affair” involved Heywood in amourous adventure with Bo’s missus. More that he, Heywood OH, had threatened Mrs. Bo with exposure for moving funds abroad (doesn’t everyone do it – especially Politburo princelings?). So Mrs. Bo ordered a flunky to whack the Brit. Call in the cyanide drops. Enter police chief/head Bo enforcer Wang. Discovered some truth about the hit not being an alcohol induced heart attack, Mrs Bo’s dabs all over the evidence and spilled his guts to Bo (with a hidden threat of some sort one might assume). So Bo demoted Wang; bringing the house down when Wang fled to the only safe place he knew, the US Consulate in Chengdu. Washing Politburo dirty laundry in the US Consulate is prima facie treason. The remedy for which is instant cremation – sentence first, trial later yelled the Queen. You couldn’t write this stuff for TV!

Not too credible – why on earth would Heywood threaten Mrs. Bo – his money spigot? I prefer the cuckolding theory.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Curiouser and curiouser

Curiouser and curiouser. Reliable Chinese websites say that Mr. Bo (not Mrs Bo) ordered a lackey to do Neil Heywood in with cyanide drops. Very low tech – even the Bulgarians knew how to use ricin on the end of a brolly. And Vlad Vlad Putin’s guys trailed Polonium 201 all the way from Moscow to London to let Litvinenko know he was facing extreme prejudice. Yet Mrs Bo is accused of homicide and Mr Bo only of “disciplinary infractions”. Maybe if you’re a Politburo princeling, murder of running dogs is OK. Inscrutable these Middle Kingdomers.
It was only a matter of time, I guess before suggestions came to light that Neil Heywood OH was cuckolding his most important connection. Very risky maneuver that.
The world is a surreal experience. The tragic Norse Saga of remorseless Anders Breivik has kicked off in Oslo court. He’s mad enough to start with a Sieg Heil salute (maybe with closed fist) and pitch the self-defense defense. Which must be evidence enough that he’s mad as the proverbial hatter and should be locked up in a very safe place sine die. Amazing he could have caused such dreadful mayhem without accomplices. How many forensic psychiatrists does it take to change a light bulb? Does it really matter if he’s legally sane or not – the consequence should be the same? Quite a contrast with the ongoing trial of Bunga Bunga Berlusconi in Milan. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/silvio-berlusconi/9206952/Showgirls-performed-nun-striptease-for-Silvio-Berlusconi.html Dada the rocking horse rides again; a naked nun perched Godiva-like side-saddle.
Which of course leads us right back into the greatest Dadaist project of all the Euro-Arts – the Euro and to its siren Christine au foulard (did Hermès make that thing?) http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9204049/IMF-chief-Christine-Lagarde-will-struggle-to-bag-more-funds-for-a-firewall.html and her Louis Vuitton begging bag. Looks like her relationship with little tax-cheater Geithner has gone frosty, so it must be a relief that handsome Georgie of the Exchequer is ready to fill in with a kiss on both cheeks http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9205917/George-Osborne-ready-to-offer-10bn-extra-firepower-for-the-IMF.html (or maybe they’re going in for a lip smack?) and £10 billion of down-and-out UK taxpayers moula to get the begging bag ball rolling. That should play well in Slough. The sight of OE’s Camborne (cf Merkozy – not the fine Cornish borough of my birth) sucking up to the Brusselscrats is not an encouraging sign.
The Spanish can usually be relied on for their own piece of Euro-farce. King Juan Carlos, after falling over while shooting a Botswana elephant, came up lame himself and had to be rushed back to Madrid to be fitted up with two new hips. Neatly jumping the long waiting in line time for Spanish plebes to be treated. Crazy guys those Borbon’s. Too much recoil from his double-rifle 470 Nitro-Express no doubt. Playing at being Teddy Roosevelt is not for cissies.
Should be about time for Cristina in the Casa Rosada to do something eye catching in memory of Juan & Evita just to prove the world is sane and rational after all. Going for Repsol while Mariano is distracted and King Juan Carlos indisposed could be a very shrewd maneuver.

Send in the Tanks

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9204881/Neil-Heywood-mystery-Gilded-lifestyle-of-murder-suspects-son-Bo-Guagua.html

Bo Guagua and friends in Oxford.

Just as many dynasties in the Middle Kingdom have fallen through over-whelming corruption and greed, (and the intercession of the round eyes to squash the Boxers), so too will this self-elected band of despots meet reality one day. In the world of the Han, there really is a 1% leeching off the other 99%. Mr. Hu Jintao must be just praying he can make it to a comfortable retirement later in the year; without Tiananmen II breaking out first. Would he have the stomach to send in the tanks – or is the PLA really still in control anyway and so wouldn’t wait for his order to charge?

The exit strategy for Bo gone Gaga seems to be to abandon his parents to their respective fates – which might include instant cremation a la Heywood OH - his Ferrari’s in their garages in Chongqing and Beijing, his millions escheated to the state and throw himself on the mercy of asylum in the great State of Massachusetts. I wonder what the Chinese equivalent of “rusticated” is. (Quaint Oxbridge term for being “sent down” temporarily for lack of brains, application, etc – usually doesn’t cause a major international and diplomatic incident).

Comedy to an observer, tragedy if you’re in the cast.

Maybe Mike Williams can tell us what’s really going on if his emails aren’t being censored.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Mme Lagarde


Jeremy Warner calling it like it is. All Euro-Pols have to toe the line and live up De Nile. Worshiping Kant trumps all. Like bankers, we’re doomed to pay Europols and Eurocrats huge sums of money to make things ever worse. Where’s that Jack Delors when we need to lock him in a pillory at Tyburn?
The Spanish Bolsa takes another tumble and 10 year bond yields sprint past 6%. The Spanish banks are into the ECB up to their eyeballs with no possible way out. The Italians strike against Mario’s well-tempered austerity. No news in other words. Merkozy has/have gone to ground. The less said about Psychozy’s reëlection, the better his chance of not coming in third in the first round. What fun it will be to have a full red-blooded Bennite Socialist triumphantly climbing the steps of L’Élysée while M. & Mme Carla Bruni exit out the tradesmens’ door into oblivion. At least they can let Francois the Dutchman suffer the ignominy of bailing out the French banks cuando la mierda empiece a salpicar.
Meanwhile the gripping Anglo-Sino theatre of the Bo family is rattling the entire Politburo and twitterings of coups d’état roil the placid waters of the Beijing administration. Balliol, Oxford, the Oxford Union, Oxford Tory Club and Harrow all with egg on face for giving succour to a rich Commie brat with money to burn. Neil Heywood, OH, dead for his pains. Now it’s Harvard’s turn in the barrel.
Makes Christina Fernandez de Kerchner look like a wise guy.
I spoke way too soon about the lovely silver-haired lady in DC and her French coup at the IMF. She’s back to calling the sky as falling. I guess she’s had her buddies at the French Finance Ministry on the horn daily yelling “Au Secours”! Why, Oh Why doesn’t she just stuff that expensive Hermès foulard as an amuse bouche every time she feels the urge to talk to the press. We all know she’s shilling for the EZ – which is why she’s at the IMF in the first place. Flashing come hither looks at little tax cheater Geithner.
Here’s a treat for you all. A lovely picture of Christine (not Christina), replete with vivid Hermès to offset her winter tan.
Stephen Lewis at Monument Securities comments on other challenges facing the IMF:
Mme Lagarde earlier this week reiterated her call for the USA and Japan to fashion credible plans for reducing government debt over the medium term. [She] has been taking a different line with hard-pressed sovereign debtors in the euro zone. Though economic demand in these countries has typically been weaker than in the USA or Japan, the IMF has backed EU authorities in insisting on immediate action to effect swingeing cuts in government deficits.
Mme Lagarde is far from willing her prescription as a universal rule, however, probably because she is well aware that if all countries with large government deficits and rising public debt were to act as the peripheral euro zone nations have been coerced into doing, the global economy, or at least the advanced sector of it, would be locked in a prolonged downturn. Clearly, then, the IMF’s priority in enforcing fiscal restraint on euro zone member-states is the preservation of the euro arrangements. Though we may suspect that political motivations lurk behind the position the IMF has adopted, that need not be the case. It could be that the IMF genuinely sees significant benefits for the world economy from keeping the present euro currency system alive in Europe.

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Unsinkable Titanic

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9198517/Europes-banks-beached-as-ECB-stimulus-runs-dry.html

Some more scare tactics from Ambrose; suggesting as I implied yesterday that LTRO will end in tears. When sovereigns importune their banks to borrow at the ECD and stuff their balance sheets with the sovereign’s own IOU’s, the risk becomes compounded. Three year money into 5 year bullet bonds doesn’t go. However great the round tripping spread may be. In the case of Ireland and Iceland, the banks took the sovereign down by unregulated stupidity, cupidity, greed, self-importance, arrogance and worse. Infinite leverage became conservative. In contrast to Spain and Italy where the sovereign will be directly complicit in taking their banks down with them. Presumably they retain the quaint notion that sovereign debt may be risk free. Not so if it’s denominated in a currency that cannot be printed (without Draghi obliging and buying the bonds and transferring the losses to the Bundesbank et al). Not so if there’s a maturity and intermediation mismatch. The EZ is living way over the edge and seems to be infatuated with the idea that ever more convoluted schemes to take in one another’s dirty laundry represents sane economics.

The Titanic too was unsinkable. Hubris can be a dangerous thing. Buy the CHF and NKr. (remember the Norwegians are really pissed off that their sovereign fund took a Greek 75% haircut. Kiss of death for future Club Med issues).

I guess Christina Fernandez de Kerchner thinks that with Mariano up to his culo in aligátori and the Brits cowed by her sabre rattling, she can stake a claim to be heir to Hugo Chavez (is he still alive). Or maybe she’s just paying Cuban health insurance. But expropriating Repsol of YPF should really help boost the economy and inspire boat-loads of OFDI. Cutting off imports of Marmite should endear her all around. Never underestimate the ability of the Argies to shoot themselves in both feet with one round. The Brits are now demanding payment of £45 mil in loans that financed arms exports to the Argies right before the Falklands War (only 30 years ago). Fat chance of getting paid. In response no doubt the Argies will set up their own Marmite factory. Look for shortages of Fray Bentos corned beef in the High Street. That’ll bring the Brits to their knees.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9201039/Argentina-poised-to-seize-Repsol-assets-endangering-shale-dream.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/onthefrontline/9200047/Argentina-to-invade-Falklands-after-30th-anniversary-furore-dies-down-commander-warns.html

Ascribing logical thought processes to Christina is not a rational approach. Preservation of power by such as Christina always trumps the misery her people will suffer.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Sabbatical Over

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9196551/Spains-lose-lose-struggle-reignites-euro-crisis.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9196534/Stock-and-bond-markets-rocked-by-fears-of-Italian-and-Spanish-debt-spirals.html

Sabbatical over. Spring in Europe and especially the UK has been dominated by High Pressure (barometric) and attendant clear skies, warm days, crisp nights and in the UK a serious lack of rain. For the most part a very benign outlook on all fronts. But in Rome and Madrid, the auguries are thinking they may be furies after all. Mario and Mariano may be figuring they could tiptoe past the tulips, if not the graveyard, by talking austerity and sounding reasonable – even cocking the odd bon mot in the direction of Brussels. But the flame of Teutonic orthodoxy appears to burn there brightly yet, and now even the stolid burghers of the Low Countries (Les Pays Bas) are discovering they may need to try a little of their own medicine.

Les Bourses Européennes took serious fright today. Capital flight is going to take off like a rocket.

The new ghastly numbers for the Unfertile Crescent (aka Club Med), are now 25 over 50. That’s 25% unemployment and 50% for youff. And that’s only those registering for the dole. Employment is crashing and underemployment, not recognized in these terrifying parameters of despair, is soaring. In the meantime Mario & Mariano have also to try to tiptoe past the Syndicati before the Anarcho strain reappears; which is quite another matter. The sword of Merkelian Damocles hangs sharp and low above their heads. Must make being between the Devil and the deep blue sea, or between a rock and a hard place, seem quite comfy. In living memory Gli Brigate Rosse terminated Aldo Moro with extreme prejudice.

So it could be a race between Italy and Spain as to whose 10 year bond yield will breach the magic 7% first and which one of them scares the Brussels/Frankfurt/Berlin axis most. The race looks more like being a sprint than a Marathon (pace Greece). With Mario’s (Draghi) LTRO round tripping exhausted, it’s shaping up to be the day of the Bond Vigilantes again. Meanwhile Bunds yield 1.6% and UK gilts not much more than 2%. Go figure.

What a blessing that lovely Christine Lagarde seems to have foresworn the Chicken Little role for the time being. She’ll be back with silver tongue soon enough, importuning the taxpayers of the IMF to bail, bail, bail the saintly Project (aka the Eurozone). Ta gueule, Madame.

It’s shaping up to be very, very nasty – so fasten the seat belt. Serious turbulence can arrive from clear blue skies.