Saturday, April 28, 2012
Le Pen est plus puissante que l'épée
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
L’Empereur Boney Parts
Les Comédies des Politiques
Merkozy RIP
Friday, April 20, 2012
Just Plain Crazy
Princeling Mr. Bo, Lovely Christina, German Technical Problems
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
You Go Girl
Jeremy on De Nile.
http://news.yahoo.com/eu-voices-concern-over-argentina-ypf-seizure-130015844--finance.html
Cristina – you go girl. Nothing like whacking the Spaniards when they’re down to make friends and influence people. Interesting move pushing the UK and Spain together over the Malvinas (Maldives according to the POTUS). At least Hugo Chavez is a fan. Taking on Spain, the EU, Mexico and that great Euro-heavyweight (avoir-dupois not intellect) Barroso is quite a feat to pull off.
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/soros-eu-crisis-euro/2012/04/16/id/436042?s=al&promo_code=EAA4-1
More nonsense from the man who broke the Bank of England. “The Euro crisis started as a collapse of the US banking system – then compounded by divergent competitiveness”. Which presumably is Soros-speak for it’s all Dubya’s fault. No suggestion the Euro-crisis started when the French importuned Kohl to sign up for Maastricht as the price of reunifying the FRD and East Prussia.
http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-chinas-bo-backed-then-blocked-murder-probe-104054816.html
A somewhat different take on the Bo/Wang/Heywood “affair”. No suggestion that Bo ordered the hit on Heywood, nor that the “affair” involved Heywood in amourous adventure with Bo’s missus. More that he, Heywood OH, had threatened Mrs. Bo with exposure for moving funds abroad (doesn’t everyone do it – especially Politburo princelings?). So Mrs. Bo ordered a flunky to whack the Brit. Call in the cyanide drops. Enter police chief/head Bo enforcer Wang. Discovered some truth about the hit not being an alcohol induced heart attack, Mrs Bo’s dabs all over the evidence and spilled his guts to Bo (with a hidden threat of some sort one might assume). So Bo demoted Wang; bringing the house down when Wang fled to the only safe place he knew, the US Consulate in Chengdu. Washing Politburo dirty laundry in the US Consulate is prima facie treason. The remedy for which is instant cremation – sentence first, trial later yelled the Queen. You couldn’t write this stuff for TV!
Not too credible – why on earth would Heywood threaten Mrs. Bo – his money spigot? I prefer the cuckolding theory.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Curiouser and curiouser
Send in the Tanks
Bo Guagua and friends in Oxford.
Just as many dynasties in the Middle Kingdom have fallen through over-whelming corruption and greed, (and the intercession of the round eyes to squash the Boxers), so too will this self-elected band of despots meet reality one day. In the world of the Han, there really is a 1% leeching off the other 99%. Mr. Hu Jintao must be just praying he can make it to a comfortable retirement later in the year; without Tiananmen II breaking out first. Would he have the stomach to send in the tanks – or is the PLA really still in control anyway and so wouldn’t wait for his order to charge?
The exit strategy for Bo gone Gaga seems to be to abandon his parents to their respective fates – which might include instant cremation a la Heywood OH - his Ferrari’s in their garages in Chongqing and Beijing, his millions escheated to the state and throw himself on the mercy of asylum in the great State of Massachusetts. I wonder what the Chinese equivalent of “rusticated” is. (Quaint Oxbridge term for being “sent down” temporarily for lack of brains, application, etc – usually doesn’t cause a major international and diplomatic incident).
Comedy to an observer, tragedy if you’re in the cast.
Maybe Mike Williams can tell us what’s really going on if his emails aren’t being censored.
Friday, April 13, 2012
Mme Lagarde

Mme Lagarde is far from willing her prescription as a universal rule, however, probably because she is well aware that if all countries with large government deficits and rising public debt were to act as the peripheral euro zone nations have been coerced into doing, the global economy, or at least the advanced sector of it, would be locked in a prolonged downturn. Clearly, then, the IMF’s priority in enforcing fiscal restraint on euro zone member-states is the preservation of the euro arrangements. Though we may suspect that political motivations lurk behind the position the IMF has adopted, that need not be the case. It could be that the IMF genuinely sees significant benefits for the world economy from keeping the present euro currency system alive in Europe.
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Unsinkable Titanic
Some more scare tactics from Ambrose; suggesting as I implied yesterday that LTRO will end in tears. When sovereigns importune their banks to borrow at the ECD and stuff their balance sheets with the sovereign’s own IOU’s, the risk becomes compounded. Three year money into 5 year bullet bonds doesn’t go. However great the round tripping spread may be. In the case of Ireland and Iceland, the banks took the sovereign down by unregulated stupidity, cupidity, greed, self-importance, arrogance and worse. Infinite leverage became conservative. In contrast to Spain and Italy where the sovereign will be directly complicit in taking their banks down with them. Presumably they retain the quaint notion that sovereign debt may be risk free. Not so if it’s denominated in a currency that cannot be printed (without Draghi obliging and buying the bonds and transferring the losses to the Bundesbank et al). Not so if there’s a maturity and intermediation mismatch. The EZ is living way over the edge and seems to be infatuated with the idea that ever more convoluted schemes to take in one another’s dirty laundry represents sane economics.
The Titanic too was unsinkable. Hubris can be a dangerous thing. Buy the CHF and NKr. (remember the Norwegians are really pissed off that their sovereign fund took a Greek 75% haircut. Kiss of death for future Club Med issues).
I guess Christina Fernandez de Kerchner thinks that with Mariano up to his culo in aligátori and the Brits cowed by her sabre rattling, she can stake a claim to be heir to Hugo Chavez (is he still alive). Or maybe she’s just paying Cuban health insurance. But expropriating Repsol of YPF should really help boost the economy and inspire boat-loads of OFDI. Cutting off imports of Marmite should endear her all around. Never underestimate the ability of the Argies to shoot themselves in both feet with one round. The Brits are now demanding payment of £45 mil in loans that financed arms exports to the Argies right before the Falklands War (only 30 years ago). Fat chance of getting paid. In response no doubt the Argies will set up their own Marmite factory. Look for shortages of Fray Bentos corned beef in the High Street. That’ll bring the Brits to their knees.
Ascribing logical thought processes to Christina is not a rational approach. Preservation of power by such as Christina always trumps the misery her people will suffer.
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Sabbatical Over
Sabbatical over. Spring in Europe and especially the UK has been dominated by High Pressure (barometric) and attendant clear skies, warm days, crisp nights and in the UK a serious lack of rain. For the most part a very benign outlook on all fronts. But in Rome and Madrid, the auguries are thinking they may be furies after all. Mario and Mariano may be figuring they could tiptoe past the tulips, if not the graveyard, by talking austerity and sounding reasonable – even cocking the odd bon mot in the direction of Brussels. But the flame of Teutonic orthodoxy appears to burn there brightly yet, and now even the stolid burghers of the Low Countries (Les Pays Bas) are discovering they may need to try a little of their own medicine.
Les Bourses Européennes took serious fright today. Capital flight is going to take off like a rocket.
The new ghastly numbers for the Unfertile Crescent (aka Club Med), are now 25 over 50. That’s 25% unemployment and 50% for youff. And that’s only those registering for the dole. Employment is crashing and underemployment, not recognized in these terrifying parameters of despair, is soaring. In the meantime Mario & Mariano have also to try to tiptoe past the Syndicati before the Anarcho strain reappears; which is quite another matter. The sword of Merkelian Damocles hangs sharp and low above their heads. Must make being between the Devil and the deep blue sea, or between a rock and a hard place, seem quite comfy. In living memory Gli Brigate Rosse terminated Aldo Moro with extreme prejudice.
So it could be a race between Italy and Spain as to whose 10 year bond yield will breach the magic 7% first and which one of them scares the Brussels/Frankfurt/Berlin axis most. The race looks more like being a sprint than a Marathon (pace Greece). With Mario’s (Draghi) LTRO round tripping exhausted, it’s shaping up to be the day of the Bond Vigilantes again. Meanwhile Bunds yield 1.6% and UK gilts not much more than 2%. Go figure.
What a blessing that lovely Christine Lagarde seems to have foresworn the Chicken Little role for the time being. She’ll be back with silver tongue soon enough, importuning the taxpayers of the IMF to bail, bail, bail the saintly Project (aka the Eurozone). Ta gueule, Madame.
It’s shaping up to be very, very nasty – so fasten the seat belt. Serious turbulence can arrive from clear blue skies.