Sunday, June 24, 2012

Plan B?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9352540/Germany-tells-Greece-to-stop-asking-for-help-and-start-cutting-budgets.html

Just look at the face of Herr Schäuble. I think he’s rather enjoying this – his jackboot is on the Greek’s windpipe – pricked and sprawling on a pin. This is the way the world ends, this is the way the world ends, not with a bail-out but with a bang.


Tony Blair displays one more time why he’s never been qualified to run a p-ss-up in a brewery but he’s still running for President of Euro-Fantasyland. Memo to Tony – Angela is only talking about “more Europe” to keep the heat off as much as possible and provide some talking points, not because she believes it ever will or should happen. She knows Das Volk is not up for taking on the poisoned chalice of Euro-Hegemonie and having Wolfie run the budget of every Club-Med member. And they are certainly not ready, willing nor able to accept mutualisation of all Club-Med debts onto the Bu-Bank’s balance sheet in perpetuity, ad infinitum, per ardua ad astra. Everything else is pious platitudes designed to counter Die Kanzlerin being accused of destroying the Great Project with her lumpen Prussian myopia. She knows a sinking ship when she sees one. But she also knows there is no one (outside Tory Euro-sceptics and mad Nigel Farage) with whom to engage in a real conversation about how to mitigate the fallout from that fact by intelligent statesmanship and good sense. So the charade must go on, until something really big breaks with a loud crack.

It’s going to be a big week in Euroland (it always is), but this jalopy is seriously leaking oil. There’ll be another in the series of weekly summits, at which it should become blindingly obvious that none of the palliative poultices being promoted by Club-Med and fellow travelers (our Christine of the IMF’d) has a prayer of landing one in the back of the Bu-Bank’s net. Frau Angela made that abundantly clear in Rome to the fiddling Trio Latino on Friday, as prelude to Germany pounding Greece 4 – 2 later in the day. And then to rub it in, the PBI (poor bloody Italian infantry) couldn’t even score a real time goal against a pathetic England side. OK, so they went away with the consolation prize of a pretend win on penalties – which entitles them now to have their heads handed to them by, who else, the Germans! You really couldn’t make this stuff up, as they say. Now the pbg’s have to send their deputy second team reserves to the summit due to a sad indisposition of the starting players. They can ask for the moon and promise the earth but it will avail them precisely nichts!



Liam Halligan and Niall Ferguson are a pair of sound commentators, not given to flights of fancy nor hyperbole. They both say the Euro-gig is up. They’re right and it doesn’t take multiple degrees in history and a Harvard professorship to figure that out.


Silvio has decided he’s the Comeback Kid. Things aren’t looking so good in bunga bunga land, so his safest bet is to reëstablish PM’s immunity by inviting Mario 1 to quit the Quirinale so that Silvio can move back in while the Statute of Limitations runs on Ruby the Heart-Stealer.


Roger the Bootle adds his ten (euro) cents and confirms that all wise men know the Euro is doomed to break up, but no politician (outside the lunatic fringe) can admit it – for the simple reason they just don’t want to be restrained in the pillory for admitting Euro-heresy, blasphemy or even plain common sense, or worse, for the accusation of being the proximate cause of the disaster that is imminent. (I think one of the numerous Euro-treaties – Nice, Rome, Lisbon, Maastricht, Disneyland - explicitly banned common sense as anathema to “progress” and the great pie-in-the-sky of Euro-Fantasy). So we are condemned to listen to the likes of Barroso, Van Rumply, Hollande, the Lib-Dems and the assembled Club-Med mendicant chorus – not to mention Tony Bliar – calling for more full red-blooded socialism, aka Europe, aka growff not austerity. Blair is right to state that, “The only thing that will save the single currency now is... a sort of grand plan in which Germany is prepared to commit its economy fully to the single currency.” What a crass, ridiculous, redundant statement. That has been the case lo these many years. What Blair cannot get into his thick head is that the Germans are not “prepared” to do any such thing. They are a nation state, with values, a constitution, laws, courts, eine Sprache (shared with the Austrians), a Chancellor und das Volk, all of which they take quite seriously and which, when the fat is really in the fire, they are not “prepared” to compromise nor sacrifice on the altar of some collectivist fantasy dreamed up by self-serving, indolent Frenchmen and their Club-Med sycophants; knowing as they full well do that the monstrous baggage that they would be adding to their shoulders will take them down too. They’ve been there before and they know the outcome.


Iain Martin quotes Mario 1 as stating that there is a week to save the Euro. He, Mario 1, may be right, but if the only saviour being stitched up for the role has decided he doesn’t fancy the part, the statement becomes pure demagoguery. The logical conclusion must then be that Mario 1 should sit down with all Euro-speakers of good-will and work on Plan B. But that would be heresy and ultra vires Euro-Fantasyland. So there is no plan B and at some point some major piece of the edifice will crack and the house that Jack built will come down on everyone’s head. The resulting misery will, sadly, not be fantasy.

There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.

Et tu, Brute.

Simon


Saturday, June 23, 2012

Shooting Down

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9349233/Bo-Xilais-wife-admits-Neil-Heywood-murder.html

Some light Chinese relief from the unrelenting Euro-Grimm-Tales. Mrs. Bo admits she had Neil Heywood whacked, and even sat in on the hit: it would seem because he knew too much about the $5 bil odd that Mrs. Bo had salted abroad. Chinese confessions are notoriously reliable; based as they are on skills that treat water-boarding as child’s-play.



The Syrians shoot down a Turkish F4 (and sadly it appears the crew have perished). The only mercy is that it wasn’t the Greeks what dunnit.

The Germans shoot down the Greeks. Angela tip-toes into Rome, floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee; leaving the Trio Latino with jaws agape to continue the fiddling while Rome burns theme. Angela then climbs back on her broom and heads off to Gdansk to see her Euro2012 team whack the high hopes of the Greeks for the second time in one day. With the poor new Greek PM and FinMin both im Krankenhaus, it’s shaping up as another terrible weekend for the pbg’s. Time for the mercy rule to be invoked. Pauvre M. Hollande – he’ll just have to go home and face one of his mistresses.


Barroso, com tapete, shows just why the whole Euro-project is in such a mess.

A sigh of relief all around that it’s the weekend. But for the French, more misery as bankrupt Spain ejects them from Euro12. So it’s down to Spain v Portugal in one semi, England v Italy to determine who takes on Angela’s Jungen in the other. My crystal ball (knowing nothing about the beautiful game) says Germany beats Spain in the final. Who knows, with Italy in such a funk, England could prevail. Then they’d get hit by the Teutonic Train. What an irony if Germany does stand atop the Euro-tournament when the smoke all clears. One can only hope for Spain to play a World Cup type blinder and at least make Die Kanzlerin’s steely eyes water.

Simon

Trio Latino

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9347855/Debt-crisis-Spanish-borrowing-costs-soar-despite-fresh-audit-putting-pressure-on-eurogroup.html




Well here come the Greeks again, bearing the poisoned chalice. What chance Mr. Samaras (always billed as a Harvard educated economist – like Papandreou père et fils – that worked well) has of finding the so far elusive Holy Grail deep in the BuBank’s vaults, who knows. But by staking out his position for root and branch renegotiation of the Memorandum (which the Greeks have already blown out of the water) he is a) making himself a hostage to very short term domestic fortune, and b) trying to support the Latin Trio that will be tuning up its violins to serenade and shame Frau Angela tomorrow in Rome into doing something that she’ll regret as soon as she gets home again. If it’s Friday, it must be Rome. Monti is on very thin ice with his constituents, who are looking for an end to all human pain and suffering subito. As a distraction from his bunga bunga indictments in Milan, Berlusconi is rattling everyone’s cage again and threatening to bring Monti down from the mountain. (Don’t count Berlusconi out until his hair goes grey). Faced with the Latin Trio, all trying to play in tune (Francois as premier violin of course), with offstage ostinato from Athens, one might excuse dear Frau Angela for contracting a nasty dose of the diplomatic ‘flu and just staying home for a long weekend (might be undiplomatic to suggest she contracted a severe attack of Montezuma’s in Cabo).


Meanwhile that famous bench of wise jurists in funny red hats in Karlsruhe has laid down some more of the law, and told die Kanzlerin that they need quite some time (a commodity in very short supply in Euro-land) to ponder their next move. Maybe they’re waiting for the US Supremes (that famous all girl soul band) to publish their opinion of Obamacare and blow lots of jurisprudential smoke in the air for a while. The Trio Latino can then fiddle while Rome burns and goose one another’s courage to go bell the Berliner cat in her lair. Shouldn’t supplicants and mendicants come to the source and not demand that Angela attend some sort of Star Chamber and Neo-Spanish Inquisition in Rome? But I guess she knows what she’s doing. She can just turn her hands palm up and mutter “Grundgesetz – sorry, my hands are tied”. Maybe she can request asylum in Citta del Vaticano. The Swiss Guards can see off the three Mouseketeers with one hand. Handy having a Prussian Pope.


Poor Francois has to stay well away from Paris. He can never be sure which of his mistresses will be waiting behind a column in the Élysée vestibule to warm his sang froid. Valérie is on a roll and looking to land another right cross on poor Ségolène. Mme (or is it Mlle) Royal has to play the part of spurned, but determined spouse (common law) and has now brought the kids in as reinforcements. The Fifth Republic in a very safe pair of hands (or is it three pairs).


This just in, it was only a matter of time – Christine Lagarde (doesn’t she look lovely when she purses her lips in Gallic pose) puts her well-turned foot to the scales on the side of the Trio Latino, to exert maximum pressure on Frau Angela when she gets to Rome (a wise woman would just stay home - see above). She (the lovely Christine) is paid many hundreds of thousands of the world’s taxpayers’ dollars (tax free to her of course), not to mention unlimited expenses, to shill for Hollande and the French FinMin. Absolutely outrageous. They’d better be careful or the Germans are really going to come unglued. This, and the Greeks trying to re-trade at the same time (and the Germans know full well the Greeks have zero capacity and not much more intention of ever living with anything they sign), is going to spoil Fritz the BMW worker’s whole day. It’s getting uglier by the minute. Watch for Dodgy Dave and his OE side kick, little Georgie O, to cave in to the IMF like a wet weekend and go along with Christine’s arrant nonsense (all cooked up in L’Élysée). It almost makes the Millipedes look like geniuses. Dave & Georgie (Laurel and Hardie) will start talking about British responsibility as founder member of the IMF (thanks JMK), Bretton Woods, Britain must play its part, European solidarity, agree with Obama and Geithner, Christine doing a wonderful job, Euro must be saved, blah, blah, blah. The only hope is to shame Dave into a referendum; which will bring the whole mad scheme crashing down around Dave’s ears and he can retire to the Lords and never be mentioned in polite society again. Boris’ day is coming very soon.

Tomorrow will be an interesting day in Gdansk, where Greece meets Germany in Euro12. Samaras and Angela should agree that if Greece wins, Germany pays up and if Germany wins Greece leaves the Euro ipso facto, go straight to jail, do not pass Go. Germans will win efficiently 1 – 0. Greece will go into melt-down and accuse Germany of paying off the ref.

Simon

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Huff and Puff

http://news.yahoo.com/greek-conservatives-hope-seal-coalition-deal-053426235.html

The Greeks claim to have a government. But it looks like a minority one out of the chute. Vangy and the lefties are playing a cute game; taking no ministerial positions but agreeing to support Samaras if needed with the renegotiation thing, at least as long as he seems to making headway. They’re hoping to avoid too much responsibility when it all goes horribly wrong (which like all things Euro-bail-out is subito, when the rubber of the Greek jalopy’s tyres (tires) meets the road of Angela’s Nein, Nein, Nein).




Uh, Oh – the dreadful French duo of Benoît Cœuré (what sort of a man has a dipthong in his name?) and M. Francois des deux Maîtresses are trying to bounce the long suffering Kanzlerin into opening the EFSF/ESM bond buying spigot at the ECB to firewall Spanish and Italian credit. However, the BuBankers have her locked down and under 24 hour guard to get her back to the safety of the Berlin Bunker before the French can put any more words in her mouth for myopic, story-hungry journalists to report as fact. One might have thought the conniving, dissembling, pusillanimous, cynical, self-serving French would have wanted to keep the EFSF/ESM big bazooka (pretend) powder dry for a rainy day in Paris, but I guess they are still in the first flush of power. They calculate that it’s all coming from the Germans anyway and better to try to draw the line at the Pyrenees and Les Alpes Maritimes than reactivate the Maginot Line. The French haven’t a clue as to what Hollande has in store for them, and it ain’t gonn’a be fun. A few more stunts like this and the frost will really set in across the Rhine. Even Snarkozy knew to cosy up to Frau Angela and the BuBankers.

Here is the BuBank walk-back, as dictated to Louise Amistead of the DT (I hate to say I predicted as much right after the announcement. The Los Cabos done-deal story probably originated from l’Élysée):-

“The German Chancellor agreed that the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) had the "possibility of buying bonds" but said no discussions were being held about such a move. (And you can tell Messieurs Hollande, Mario 1 and Rajoy I said so)”.

In other words the BuBank has paraphrased Die Kanzlerin to have said with reference to the €650 bil big bazooka cannonade (all hat and no cattle) that she’s happy to talk about anything. It’s all on the table (except any idea of pledging the FRD’s credit for any more deadbeats). So she is reported now to have said the whole bond buying thingy is “theoretical”. (Does Cœuré mean heartless, cured (as in well salted) or Curate in English? My dictionary says écœurer means to disgust or sicken. That could be it).


Victor Davis Hanson gets to the heart of the matter for the pbg’s; as he usually does. He picks up on my neo-Ottoman theme (or maybe I plagiarized it from him). The Greeks live in a nasty neighborhood. Islamic Balkans and recently ex-Commies to the north and Turkey everywhere else, including the northern part of Greece’s Achilles heel – the island of Cyprus. OK, a bit of Italy to the west, but that’s not much solace. The Euro-Greek part of Cyprus is looking for a bailout but is probably betting the Russians will come through with real money, no strings, before the EU does. If Vlad Vlad loses his naval base in Latakia thanks to Assad/Alawite genocidal tendencies, he’s no doubt got an eye on Limassol. (Which might be uncomfortable for RAF Akrotiri).

The real issue for the pbg’s is tied up with European defense and NATO; as Hanson rightly observes. Not that the big Greek defense budget is anything to do with NATO – it’s more directed to watching Turkey and Cyprus (both of course also NATO members). In any event that budget will be the first to go when the Euro flow dries up. The European part of NATO is already withering on the vine with endless defense cuts starting from a low base and burning men and matériel they can ill afford (mostly the Brits) in the Third Afghan War. But that’s a whole other story.

Right now, I imagine the Berliner Kanzlerei is up nights trying to figure out exactly how to leap out of the Euro-cauldron before the other frogs notice just how hot it’s getting. Ideally, without being blamed for bringing down the house of straw. They’ll huff and they’ll puff but they won’t be able to blow Angela’s house down.

Simon

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Il Barbiere di Madrid

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100018046/mr-barroso-europes-crisis-has-nothing-to-do-with-america/



Ambrose E-P really has his bit between his teeth now. The photo in the link immediately above is a classic. It shows the “leaders and leaderenes” of the G-20. For some inexplicable reason the G-20, feeling inadequate to making itself a laughing stock without help, allows the Use(ful)less Idiots Barroso and Von Rumply to attend. Barroso confirmed how sound a decision this is by saying something truly stupid, even by his own brain-dead standards. You’ll see Christine standing at far right rear, with a new hair-do, but looking miserable. Robert Zoellick is also there for some inexplicable reason. The host, outgoing Prez of Mexico, Calderon is front and center with one of the brutal Chinese totalitarians. Putin just makes it into the right extreme of the picture, or at least most of him does. Looking the true KGB cold warrior. Charm of a high order. Obama excels himself by holding a diplomatic hand up in front of little Julia Gillard’s face. Note that Christina de Kirchner of Las Malvinas is in the front row; while Dodgy Dave cowers in Row 2 after a flaming row with Christina outside the girls’ room. (Did Mariano manage to grab his Repsol shares back?). What on earth is a dead-beat tin-pot pocket dictatorship like the Argentine doing in such august company (sic) anyway? Most interesting is that the DT photo editor appears neatly to have cropped Le Nouveau Empereur de la France, M. Pompeux, right out of the picture. He whose Mistress #1 (et la mère de ses plusieurs enfants) failed to be elected to the NA (and straight into the Presidency thereof) largely on account of Mistress #2, the lovely Valérie Trierweiler, having poked #1 in the eye via Twitter. Round 1 to Val. Francois’ dreams of an Élysée ménage à trois are in Soros fantasyland.

Ambrose goes straight for Barroso’s jugular and suggests mildly that ex-Maoist tin-pot bureaucrats from marginal Euro-states like Portugal should keep their mouths well closed rather than open them and confirm their arrant stupidity beyond all doubt.


So the assembled brilliant company has decided that €650 billion (count ‘em) is the right number of pretend readies to fire as a blank out of the big bazooka to frighten the bond vigilantes that Spain and Italy aren’t bust (we really mean it this time). Presumably Angela went along with this Hail Mary, so she can get out of Los Cabos without any more feet in her door. The deal will last as long as it takes for the BuBankers to get her back to the Berlin Bunker and apply the thumb screws. She’s already being told by Andreas Vosskühle of the Bundesvergassungsgericht in Karlsruhe that the EFSF and/or the original ESM plan did, does or will contravene the Grundgesetz and violated the rights of the Bundestag to be consulted. The ESM is as yet un-ratified by that august body and it may not be plain sailing. (Of course the only members of the EZ that can credibly underwrite such sums (and even then to the serious detriment of their own ratings) are Germany itself, Holland (but watch out for crazy Geert), the True Finns, the Luxemburgers (a mere Grand Duchy, all 500,000 of them), and maybe the Austrians (but remember the Credit-Anstalt Bankverein in 1931). France under Hollande and his ever decreasing retirement age and swingeing tax increases will soon be trying to climb into the Lifeboat (and throwing everyone else out). This is Fantasy (see Georgie Soros) pure and simple. France is now committed to a course of Socialist make-believe. If the Euro wasn’t destined to crash, it sure will now with the dead weight of Gallic self-delusion added to the wrong side of the scale.

Ambrose tells us:-

“The ruling will make it even harder for Mrs. Merkel to strike deals at EU summits or take emergency action but is unlikely to impede immediate use of EU bail-out funds (Who says? Ed). Unease over escalating euro rescues is building by the day in Germany. Forty economists and professors have written a joint letter to Mrs. Merkel proposing a break-away "Northern Euro", exhorting her to step back from the brink before making the "even greater error" of ratifying the ESM.

The group said Berlin must clarify exactly how much Germany could stand to lose from the ECB's internal payments system, known as Target2. The Bundesbank claims on fellow central banks have exploded to €699bn, or 27pc of German GDP. The arcane issue of Target2 has fueled a hot-tempered debate in Germany over who foots the bill if monetary union falls apart.

The professors called for study laying out the pros and cons of a return to the D-Mark, or the creation of a new currency or "North Euro" led by Germany, the Netherlands, and like-minded states. The idea of a North Euro -- or "Thaler", the coin of the late Holy Roman Empire -- was first mooted by the former chief of the German Industry Federation, Hans-Olaf Henkel. It would let southern EMU states keep the euro and uphold euro debt contracts. The region could reflate and regain trade competitiveness with a weaker exchange rate. While the letter is unlikely to sway thinking in Berlin, such radical proposals are gaining a wider hearing. Georg Schuh, chief investor of Deutsche Bank's DB Advisers, said the crisis is terminal. "A break-up of the eurozone is very likely. Capital markets have already priced it in. I think we are in the end-phase," he said.”

Sounds a lot like the Deuro, the Franco and the Neo-Drachma to me. I’m not big on Thaler for a currency. Supposedly corrupted to dollar. Multiple Thalers were known as Lösers in the HRE – which, the Umlaut notwithstanding, hardly appears propitious. Isn’t it wonderful that they can tell us the BuBank’s claims on other CB’s in the EZ under Target2 are €699 billion. Not of course €700 bil. That would break the camel’s back.

After being told on Sunday evening after the polls closed (by Vangy himself) that a government must be formed “within hours” (even though the voters gave him the Bronx cheer), a second day has gone by with reports from Athens that any minute now it will be all stitched up. ‘onest it will, Gov. Doubtless they’re still arguing about who gets which corner office with the view of the Acropolis and whether fat man Venizelos can move back into the FinMin.

Look forward to a future report that Il Barbiere di Seviglia Madrid is tuning up his scissors, if not his cut-throat, and offering short back and sides to all Spanish bondholders on easy terms.

Simon

Monday, June 18, 2012

When is a Euro not a Euro?

Just to repeat myself, my rantings can be found online at http://imeffed.blogspot.com. Happy to cease and desist in stinking up your email in-box on request. You must choose one or the other, or you’ll miss future installments of the Christine Lagarde soap opera.

Now back to Greece and the Euro (how long can this go on?)!!






After all that Sturm und Drang of the Greek election, Monday has dawned loud and clear and the Greek people have spoken with one voice and voted for …  a third election? Or not. Papoulias calls on Samaras to form a government “within hours”. Even with the 50 seat bonus from just pipping Mr. Tsipras at the first past the post, ND does not command a parliamentary majority. It needs fat man Venizelos (the Evangelos), plus some even leftier splinter group. Which means that if successful at roping in PASOK, Vangy will have broken his word “within hours” that he would not be part of a government without Syriza joining a Grand Coalition. But the attraction of reverting to his former role as FinMin with a fat salary and pension pot to rival his girth will have proved too much (deposited in CHF in SBC Lugano please). Which just shows there are no principles to be had among Greek politicians. ND is the party that lied, cheated and stole to get into the Euro at a wholly unrealistic rate versus the Drachma in the first place.

So the most consequential change resulting from the vote is that Tsipras and Syriza doubled their share from Round 1. And their pressure has pulled ND and PASOK over to the “we’ll renegotiate the terms with our friend Angela” side of the argument. (She’s still singing “Nein, nein, nein” down Mexico way and I think she’s not referring to another margarita). Which in itself is a nullity; since even after two big bailouts, and an ‘Affens ‘aircut of 75% for the private sector, Greece is still running a big primary deficit on its domestic budget and even bigger on external account. The government is not paying the bills it has incurred and import credit insurances have been withdrawn. Why would capital flight reverse or even diminish? So a third big bailout is a sine qua non to even restart paying bills, including for vital imports, let alone ever servicing the debt of bailouts 1 and 2. Or bringing down the Target2 or ELA overhangs. Anyone advancing more funds to Greece characterized as a “loan” or as A/R should know it’s really a gift (aka money down a rat hole). So it’s COD only (ideally denominated in CHF).

Talking of Sturm und Drang, with a measure of Angst und Schadenfreude thrown in, my loving family has told me enough with the German already. I guess they’re right, though T S Eliot seems to have gotten away with it. Oh, well, poetic license and his German was sure better than mine.

Ambrose E-P is back on his monetary high-horse, ranting about how the ECB has allowed all meaningful monetary aggregates to collapse across the Zone. Which he claims to be the cause of the problem. I wonder about the pushing-on-a-string theory and whether the relationship between output and monetary aggregates (and velocity of circulation) isn’t more consequential than causal (at least in the case of the Euro). Especially when all Euro-money is heading, like a lemming to a cliff, back to the BuBank, or in the case of the clever money right under the mattress. It all does rather raise the existential question of what is a Euro. Is a Euro deposited in HariKiri bank in Athens the same as one deposited in Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt or even SBC in Lugano? Is a euro-note printed by the BuBank with an X serial the same as one from the Greek central bank sporting a Y? Are Euro-bank-notes safer than (electronic) bank deposits? (I suspect the answer to the last depends on which bank and where its relevant branch and or HO is located). Otherwise it’s a mystery to me.

It doesn’t seem like much of a way to run a rail road.

The Greek election has done nothing to persuade me that there is any change in outlook. The Deuro (or Nord-Euro) remains the best option split off from the Franco (or Sud-Euro). A better option than just collapsing in a heap with mutual recriminations ad nauseam. Either way Greece is out since it couldn’t even live within the Franco either. Maybe Greece’s only option is to emulate Zimbabwe, Panama, Ecuador et al and just allow all paper currencies (except the Euro since it will no longer exist) - US$’s, Deuro’s, Franco’s, CHF, even Sterling et al - to circulate freely and banks to accept deposits so denominated. Makes vending and POS machines almost impossible I guess. Otherwise, I’m with Boris of London on Dithering into the Dark Ages. But he needs to lay off another runway at Stansted. We’re not going to Bishop Stortford to get a flight anywhere unless we live in Essex, Boris. It’s Heathrow or bust (right now it looks like bust).

Of much greater relevance to us all, today is the 200th anniversary of the declaration of war by the Congress of the USA, signed by President James Madison, against the UK. Fondly known as the War of 1812. Reasons given by the USA were largely specious. The real intent was to grab British Canada while the Empire was tied up dealing with Napoleon I, and put the Brits in a two front war to take the pressure off Bonaparte. It didn’t work too well, as L’Empereur met his Waterloo first in the retreat from Moscow the same year and later again at Quatre Bras in 1815 (after a brief vacation on Elba). Meanwhile the Brits burnt down the Capitol and the White House and occupied DC; wheeling to attack Baltimore. They did not succeed, hence the Star Spangled Banner. Hostilities were ended by the Treaty of Ghent in late 1814 but word took too long to reach respective forces in Louisiana in time to obviate the need for Andrew Jackson to prevent the Brits from taking New Orleans (and grabbing the whole Louisiana Purchase). At least Canada was rescued from being absorbed into the USA. The War of US Secession was finally over!

Und so, mit vielen Entschuldigungen für alles das Deutsch.

Simon

Friday, June 15, 2012

The Waste Land

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303734204577464681763370856.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

A cri de coeur (about the utter dearth of Euro-statesmen) and good advice from Dan Henninger in the WSJ. Don’t expect the present Motley Crüe to take any notice but doubtless they’ll find a way to while away the day in Cabo.


Der Spiegel gives us a German perspective on la malattia d’Italia. Through the looking glass.


A game of poker seems like a mistaken characterization of the Euro-mess. Politicians long gone bequeathed us alles dieses Ungeheuerlichkeit and deliberately designed a Titanic without any lifeboats. Now we are all facing the consequences for which there is no good remedy. In fact there is likely no remedy in the world of reality. Unrealistic expectations, panacea politicians, flouting of the supposed rules all along, kicking the can endlessly down a cul-de-sac, demagoguery à l’outrance, and just plain old wishful thinking have brought us all to the point where the road runs out am Abgrund entlang. Very hard to see how sauve qui peût isn’t all that remains. There’s no bluff and counter-bluff going on. The players say what they mean and mean what they say, irrational as it and they may be, and believe they have the hand to prove it. When the cards are turned over all that’s left is MAD. A doctrine which might have averted a Cold War holocaust but which is sorely wanting in keeping most of Euro-land out of the ditch. MAD says you stay well away from the edge. But Greece, inter alia, signed up for politicians intent on a cushy life for themselves und eines freies Mittagessen ewig für jeder. The Greeks are far from unique but combined with rampant corruption, protectionism, tax-evasion and sundry other sins, they’ve reached the brink first. No one, certainly not Frau Angela, has any obligation to save them from themselves. They’ll just have to go figure starting Monday. Maybe Tsipras has the answers but I very much doubt it. However, be not surprised if Papoulias is calling on him come Monday to form a government. He’s very unlikely to succeed but the same can be said for Samaras.


If you thought Carla was tacky (and Italian), just see what two French princesses de la gauche can do without even trying.


Mrs. Merkel is giving the French as good as she received from brainless idiot M. Mountebank yesterday. She seems to be saying, “L’Empereur n’a pas des vêtements”. Probably because one of his mistresses has torn them up and exfenestrated them all over the Rue du Faubourg. Reading between the lines she’s also telling M. Blancmange that if he can’t even handle a couple of French kittens, he has no hope against a German tigress. Merkel, relishing the idea of emulating Maggie and hitting M. Pompeux le Président with her handbag. What will Paris-Match make of all this, let alone Le Canard Enchâiné? Where is that Gallic sense of humour? Dashing off to Rome in the presidential airbus to play footsie with Mario I obviously didn’t impress the Chancellor either. Just another day in the Waste Land (die verbrannte Erde) of the Euro.

Summer surprised us, coming over the Starnbergersee
With a shower of rain; we stopped in the colonnade,
And went on in sunlight, into the Hofgarten,                     
And drank coffee, and talked for an hour.
Bin gar keine Russin, stamm' aus Litauen, echt deutsch.

Frisch weht der Wind
Der Heimat zu
Mein Irisch Kind,
Wo weilest du?

+ + +

"Schon ist halb Europa, schon ist zumindest der halbe Osten (und Westen) Europas auf dem
Wege zum Chaos, fährt betrunken im heiligem Wahn am Abgrund entlang
und singt dazu, singt betrunken und hymnisch wie Dmitri Karamasoff sang.
Über diese Lieder lacht der Bürger beleidigt, der Heilige
und Seher hört sie mit Tränen."

With apologies to HH.

Simon

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Rauch aus Athen?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9332474/Debt-crisis-the-cost-of-default-rioting-sieges-and-death.html

Greeks are invited to compare their lot to the Argentine. Except unlike Argentina they have no exports to sell.


Oh, boy this is getting very nasty indeed, and it’s only Thursday night in Berlin. A whole day to go tomorrow. Achtung hinunter. Pobre Sn de Guindos now. He’s stating the bloomin’ obvious that has been apparent to all, other than those who will not see (aka Euro-crats and fellow gravy-train travelers). “If something cannot go on, it will probably stop”. He’s referring to his own country. Welcher ist Hirsch, welcher Schweinwerfer?

M. Arnaud Montebourg (French for Mountebank?), the French industry minister, says markets are flying out of control because the ECB is failing to do its job (no suggestion that it might be on account of unsustainable debt and Socialists taking power in Paris). "Certain European leaders, led by Mrs. Merkel, are fixated by blind ideology," he thunders across the Rhine. Not a thought that Germany has a constitution Mrs. Merkel is sworn to uphold, nor a Bundestag/Bundesrat to which she is answerable, nor a Treaty creating the ECB that expressly forbids it to act as he commands, nor even an electorate (what that?, Ed). Panique et afolement are clearly now gripping the new équipe de l’Élysée and they don’t have little Snarkozy to calm them all down. What will Ségolène and Valérie try next to divert attention from the awful reality that the ECB appears not to comprehend that, treaties be damned, it was always intended to be an extension of La Trésorie Française (headed by a Frenchman) and its saintly Ministère. Who let an Italian in there, sacré bleu! So the simple French answer is to yell at Frau Merkel that it’s all her fault, du ideologue Boche! That should make Angela feel all warm and fuzzy towards letting the ECB dogs off the leash. The Franco-Prussian war by other means. Thank you Herr von Clausewitz. If Hollande has assez de cervelle, he’ll fire up the Presidential Airbus and set off for Berlin and do some serious groveling and promising the guillotine in the morning for M. Mountebank. But of course Hollande has his own election for the National Assembly lap-dogs going on and needs to keep his mistresses from gouging one another’s eyes out. C’ést une farce (comédie) de boulevard en toutes langues.


At least Alessandra is doing her best in Rome to offer a little light relief. Happy memories of il mio nonno, Il Duce, and the trains running on time.


A second dose of Ambrose E-P for the day – and it even sounds like he is starting to panic. French ‘flu from across La Manche. He tells Angela what the Germans must/should do to stop the rot. Swing all the levers of fiscal and monetary policy from Stop to Go. Except as he admits, that will ensure the demise of Angela and her CDM in the very near future. It also means that the German taxpayer is going to be forking out durch die Nase für Zeit ewig. Which is where Ambrose’s report of Mr. Dumas’ plea falls on deaf ears. The sting is in Mr. Dumas’ tail. Greeks out next week, Dutch disease leads to change to an anti-Euro government in the autumn (Gorgeous Geert), giving Germany the cover to leave the benighted Euro behind as Club Med funny money. A bit like cowrie shells round the neck. The Deuro it is – told you so.

The G20 will meet next week in Cabo San Lucas, down Mexico way, land of the industrial scale methamphetamine lab. Those Mexicans can sure teach us something about exports. The smoke from Athens may still be rising and Crédit Agricole may have walked away from its subsidiary HariKiri Bank but we can be sure we’ll be treated to the same long list of euphemistic blather from the assembled pols. There’ll be “headwinds” (blowing from and in all directions), “kick-starting the economy” and “growff” in the same breff. (Where will they apply the kick – the poor nag is prostrate?). No doubt “youff” will get a mention, SME’s must be courted with more credit, and billions of highly paid “Green” jobs will spring up anywhere that Cap & Trade or carbon taxes or the cold wind from the North do bloviate. That should do it, Ciao – see you in Bali next month. One can only hope and pray that the leaders of countries doing some economic things right – Stephen Harper from Canada say (almost mentioned little Welsh girl Julia Gillard from Canberra but she’s gone all in on Green (aka broke) to body slam the virile Oz economy back into the Outback. Let’s hope Tony Abbott is keeping his budgie smugglers handy). What a world when the only economic sense being talked is from Canada, Poland and the Czech Republic, not to mention Estonia. Dodgy Dave and Gorgeous George won’t cut much mustard.

The only sensible recourse is to watching the US Open golf tourney from sunny San Francisco, with a G&T at hand and hoping it all blows over. I suggest staying away from Euro12. Nasty name associations and such blood sports can be hard on sensitive stomachs. That’s assuming we get through Friday first without any more French “statesmen” calling die gnädige Kanzlerin rude names.

Simon

Machen Sie meinen Tag!

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2012/06/11/is-perestroika-coming-in-california/


Some news from closer to home – The Peoples’ Republic of California. A polity proving over the last decade that in a democracy, you sure get the “leaders” you deserve. The Eponymous Gray Davis, the termed out Terminator – he of the execrable English - and now for a second stint at breaking the greatest economy in the world, the diabolical ex-Jesuit, Jerryiatric Brown. A man who has single-handedly unpicked the life-work of his father. As I have said elsewhere, a sovereign State that can give you Intel, HP, Google, Apple, Facebook, Stanford University, Broadcom, Cal, UCLA, Yosemite, the Redwoods and the Hoover Institute cannot be all bad (we’ll leave “Hollywood”, Richard Nixon and O J Simpson out of the reckoning for the moment!). Plus of course USC and Tommy Trojan.

Joel Kotkin is a Dem and always worth reading. He knows the State well as does Victor Davis Hanson from his Stanford tour d’ivoire.


El pobre Mariano. Bad enough his banks are all busted to bits and now wards der Kanzlerin und ihrer BuBankers, bad indeed to have Cristina de Kirchner in Spanish America pinching all his Repsol stock, but to have Dodgy Dave (for it must be he), fresh from poking the Spaniards in the eye with the Earl & Countess of Wessex roaming the rock (he, the Earl, a descendant of Elizabeth’s I and II), authorizing the projection of a massive portrait of HM Queen Elizabeth II all over la Roca de Gibraltar – so large indeed it can be seen from Madrid - must be galling in the extreme. Those Gibraltarians seem determined not to allow any renegotiation of the Treaty of Utrecht. They’ll hold the FCO’s feet to the fire and send a message to those plucky kelpers in the Falklands to give Cristina the royal salute.

Either way, the Germans are telling the EU not to bother with any more plans for their “banking union” whatever that is. Just another version of the three card trick where the black queen always ends up in the BuBank one could guess. These brilliant EU minds (Barroso et Cie) are untroubled by any appreciation that unlimited debts, when spread over the strongest credit in the world, are sufficient to bring the house (of cards that Jack built) down in a heap (see the USA).


This is a special piece by Simon Nixon in the WSJ for all unreconstructed Thatcherites. His thesis, based on the sad event of a Greek suicide, is that there is not a leader in sight “on the Continent”. With the possible exception of Frau Merkel, and some Balts, Poles, Czechs even. But they’ll be waiting for a very long time for anyone of Thatcher stature. Someone with the courage to speak the unalloyed and painful truth for a change. We are all in a very deep hole – Rule 1: Stop Digging. La Comédie Francaise de Paris must be embarrassing; even to the French with their love of burlesque. There are two big stories in the French press i) regarding Psychozy and reports of his reaction to DSK’s nocturnal antics au voiture in the Bois de Boulogne, and ii) the very public cat-fight, mud-wrestling match between Hollande’s two mistresses; Ségolène in the red corner and Valérie in the Paris Match corner. Heady stuff but it won’t keep the French state out of the Latin ditch.


Hard not to have some sneaking sympathy for Mr. Tsipras. The only way to fight the nonsense of the Euro and its infinite non-sequiturs is to offer countervailing non-sequiturs in reply. We’ll do it our way and we’ll stay in the Euro. See if we don’t! Lefty populism isn’t anything better than very thin gruel, and the money will for sure run out quite soon. But how much worse is that than the misery on offer from Samaras and Evangy and that deus ex machina, The Troika?



Ambrose sees a crack in the German carapace, a chink of light for the down-trodden masses of Club Med sanatoria. Debt pooling by the front door, but with a committed sinking fund. It’ll take years to structure and everyone is guaranteed to hate it by the time the small print emerges. Angela will have been long retired and the debt will still be rolling up. Horses, over the hill, stable door slamming, too little, too late. A bit of Prussian window dressing, I suspect. Surely Ambrose has resorted to wishful thinking.

Which brings us all back to the week from hell – at the end of which Cyprus is bust and the Greeks will vote again – from which the emergence of stable government is highly unlikely. Spanish bond yields are rising, dragging the Italians upwards into the heliosphere where Icarus came unglued. The Spanish bank fix is but words, prayers, good intentions, promises, fingers crossed and a very tenuous connection to the real world of the Prussian taxpayer. Normal capital flight service north will resume subito and continue until something nasty breaks with a loud crack. We read the SDP and its unholy alliance with the Greens (and probably with the Monster Raving Loony Party of Prussia) have threatened die Kanzlerin that they’ll block the fiskalcompact ratification in the Bundesrat if she doesn’t take her Jill-boot off Mariano and Mario’s respective scrawny necks. The short answer should be “Have at it – machen Sie meinen Tag”!

Now is probably a good time to get some rest, stock up on fortifying G&T supplies and settle down for a respite weekend of US Open golf and brace ourselves for a wild Athens Sunday. Come Monday there’ll be plenty of smoke in the air and it’s doubtful it will clear for some while. After which the script becomes very foggy and the players will be back where they started – ad libbing like the Tower of Babel.

Simon

Monday, June 11, 2012

Was für eine Zugabe, Angela?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2012/06/10/niall-ferguson-on-how-europe-could-cost-obama-the-election.html

Niall is on form here – but I think he misses the wind from Wisconsin.





Here’s a medley of Euro-Songs to lighten your Monday gloom. The markets behaved predictably. An early dealer self-protective, short-covering bounce, followed by more selling by those facing the reality, if not the horror, of the week to come (the weak to go – down or to the wall). The bailout (of Spain) that cannot speak its name. Debt on debt, mumbo on jumbo, kant on can’t (or won’t) and not a coherent story in sight. Rajoy puts on a brave face but knows that the Eurocrats have offered him only the hemlock of more debt. Will it be EFSF, will it be ESM (not yet in existence, not yet ratified by the Bundestag), what will the interest rate be, will all other lucky Spanish creditors see themselves subordinated as a prelude to the Greek barber taking his Affens ‘aircut and setting up shop in Madrid? Rajoy says it’s only for the banks, but it’s a new sovereign obligation however he cuts it – but does it enter the banks as equity, debt, paella? Rajoy says no external new conditions. But if it rides like a troika, smells like a troika and waddles like a troika and has Mme Lagarde at the reins, it sure isn’t a duck. He’ll have to eat crow soon enough: the Eurocrats say Spain will be “supervised”. How does that sovereignty feel, Mariano? So the medicine failed to reduce the patient’s fever even for one trading session. Was für eine encore (Zugabe), Angela?

Our local world-class daily rag, the Orange County Register (you know – where the Housewives come from) inadvertently gets the sub-headline right on the money. “Spain not spared Pain – Prime Minister gloomy as country gets lifeline to short (sic) up banks. Who needs Euro-friends with what must feel like an enema to Mariano? Can he resist the temptation to emulate Christina’s coup de Repsol and divert attention from his troubles by sending the Armada to Gibraltar (it’s much closer than Flanders, Mariano). Sic transit gloria mundi.

We just don’t know and we cannot be told – because the Euro-brains don’t know either. Can Italy fund its share of the bailout, can Spain, will Spain, should Spain? Will the Finns continue to demand collateral (something they can take to the BuBank with a straight face)? Loads of dirty laundry, all waiting to be mutualized. No more promises – show us the money!

Ambrose returns to his monetary contractions and lays the blame squarely at the door of the Frankfurt/Berlin Axis. He advocates that Latins outvote the Teutons at the ECB and direct Mario 2 to buy all Spanish and Italian paper on offer (via the printing press, of course). Let Nord-Europa head out in a huff, he suggests. On which side would the French come down, one wonders? Hollande cannot want to preside, right after his election, over the biggest bust-up across the Rhein since …. The French could not live in the Deuro for long. Would Mario 2 dare to follow such direction – und hochheben der mittler Finger als BuBank? Another ECB resignation could be Der Kuss des Tod.

And after more Sturm und Drang than we can all handle, we must await all week with breath suitably bated the Greeks to get their do-over right on Sunday. Very hard to imagine they’ll get the third shot. Much like a North Korean rocket launch, this one could dive rapidly into the Aegean. My prediction – there will be another hung-parliament. (Not hanged, note). Papoulias will have to try again with an infinite series of permutations and combinations of left, left, left, right, left. It’s unlikely to be synthesis, catharsis, stasis – just Sweeney very Agonistes, Melodrama Aristophanic.

I commend you to Peter Popham’s piece in the Indie link above. He takes a very contrary view to my own. Which is to say that, having tried very hard and with no fear of breaking a lot of crockery to create an edifice that could stand tall in its own right and volition, and having found that edifice to be inherently unstable, shaken repeatedly to its very foundation, the faith of its congregation sapped at every turn, he advocates only one sure course is to be recommended. More from the same architects must be offered. We must have and clearly we desperately need “more Europe”. It dates me, but I vividly recall the mantra of Anthony Wegdwood-Benn after another Worzel Gummidge poll fiasco (or was it the Welsh Windbag), that the answer could only be “more full red-blooded socialism”. For ever doubling-down and coming up snake-eyes.


Jeremy comes through late in the day with an analysis which won’t make for jolly reading in Madrid nor in other Euro-points-east.

For you Harvey-Nicks habitués, a horror story of utter tastelessness from today’s DT thanks to Christina Odone - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/cristina-odone/9323520/How-could-Harvey-Nicks-get-it-so-wrong.html  (This story is unsuitable for young eyes and ears). But it does gel with another less than tasteful analogy drawn by a waggish commentator describing the Spanish bailout. “It’s a bit like peeing your pants at the North Pole. The initial warm feeling is shortly followed by less pleasant sensations”. With apologies to those of you with very sensitive constitutions. Head for Fortnums.

Almost as an afterthought we learn that Cyprus will this week request a Spanish style bailout, albeit on a rather lesser scale. It must be announced this weekend prior to the Greek poll results becoming known and rendering the whole exercise null and void.

It’s setting up to be a long and exciting Euro-Woche for all the wrong reasons. Arme Angela.

Simon

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Vivat Regina

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/allison-pearson/9314087/Prince-of-Wales-presents-a-real-danger-to-the-monarchy.html

Wow, Allison must have really been ticked off by HRH, The PoW (not to be confused with a POHM). Note to the Beeb, it’s HM the Queen. HRH’s are for mortals like the PoW and his Duchess of the Kingdom of the Stannaries (land of my birth – so I guess I owe fealty to the Duchess). Did Allison contract food poisoning from a jar of Duchy Originals jellied eels? In another age the Old Bill would be fingering her frock and locking her up in that great movie back-drop of a prison, the White Tower, in the next cell to Rebekah. Talk of the Queen abdicating has largely been quelled but according to Allison, not so in the case of HRH the PoW and Duke of Cornwall, before he even has the chance to emerge from his mother’s death bed-room as HM in his own right. There’s no doubt that Prince Will & Princess Kate, HRH’s Flt. Lt. the Duke (RAF) and Duchess of Cambridge, would win any kind of popular poll over the Cornwall’s. I guess Cambridge is now a much more important place than the remote Stannaries. A thought (non-seditious, I hope). HM The Queen is now 86, so she has at least 15 years to go to pass her mother’s final age of 101. In November, HRH The PoW will be 64. Add 15 makes 79. The Duke of Cantab will be a mere 45 (he turns 30 in a couple of weeks). Just a bit of idle Royal arithmetic for you, of no real consequence, but just in case you were contemplating seditious thoughts with Allison.

As an aside it might be worth remembering how the Queen regnant’s great-great-grandmother, the then Princess Victoria of Hanover, Kent and Saxe-Coburg-Saalfeld came to the throne as a mere 18 year old. Her uncle, HM King William IV, managed to cling to life until just past Victoria’s 18th birthday in 1837, to ensure that her mother – much detested by William – would not become Regent. William’s elder brothers (incl George IV) and his own (legitimate) offspring had all pre-deceased him. His younger brother, the Duke of Kent also obliged in 1820; leaving Victoria of Kent as heiress presumptive. Victoria reigned 63 years from 1837; until expiring in 1901, a mere 81 years old thereby ushering in the new Edwardian century. What money on Elizabeth II ushering in the new age of William V (before the heir apparent ascends as Charles III). Idle speculation (but utterly non-seditious)? William would I believe be the first King of England to be an OE. That should make Henry VI proud.
 
 
Another less than useful tidbit. Elizabeth I knighted Sir Walter Raleigh and appointed him Lord Warden of the Stannaries in 1585. Probably to compensate him for the unfortunate failure of the Colony & Dominion of Virginia at Roanoake Island the previous year. He maintained the office until her death in 1603; whereafter he spent the rest of his life, prior to his execution, in the White Tower at the displeasure of King James I. And now the ungrateful Scots Nats (current would-be king - Sean Connery) want their own kingdom back. Time to agitate for the recall of the Parliament of the Stannaries and declare Cornwall (and Devon) independent of Scotland. I shall contest the seat for Falmouth.


An update on Christine’s faux pas à la Gréque. The Chief Greek tax collector (a man much worried about his immediate redundancy) has sprung gallantly to Christine’s defense. He’s seen the books, sent out claims to Greek bigwigs and has been studiously ignored by all and sundry. (See lovely photo of Christine, handsome as ever with foulard to match her hair color).


Charles Moore (authorized biographer of Maggie of Maastricht and former editor of the Spectator) writes here a very serious and thoughtful piece about the relationship of Britain to the EU/Eurozone (bad and getting worse). The photo depicts Frau Angela pretending to shoot Dodgy Dave in the chest (he had just told her to keep her hands off the Square Mile). Moore joins my lampoon of little Georgie Soros and reminds us of the Euro-bicycle metaphor. Everyone has to keep pedaling furiously to prevent the unwieldy contraption becoming terminally unstable and skinning the knees of its rider(s). One can only imagine a multi-tandem multi-cycle – with 27 riders, many of whom are facing rearwards – all pedaling in disharmony and the Greeks (sensibly perhaps) riding on the pillion, well out of reach of any pedals. A metaphor stretched to breaking point by reductio ad absurdum. I think that is what Charles is saying. Bring on the referendum to end all referenda.


Here is one of my very favourite scribblers – Mark Steyn, Canadian born, English educated, resident of the Granite State of NH. http://www.steynonline.com/ A man of acerbic wit, a nice line in sarcasm and one who can boil current affairs down to their essential oils in a heart-beat. Not one of the reigning POTUS’ biggest fans – that much is clear. (The mighty dairy state of Wisconsin has rung the POTUS’ tocsin, I venture).

Meanwhile we await with breath bated the announcement of the deal to end all deals with the Spanish Banks to make them citadels of confidence and financial probity. The bail-out that cannot speak its name. Georgie Soros and friends can now turn to the Banco’s d’Italia. When they come cap in hand, the Spanish won’t be on the bailing team, one assumes. Hollande rules his Paris domain in blissful ignorance of the coming storm. Why doesn’t he retire now – surely he’s old enough by any French standard?

Simon