I
commend this fascinating piece by little Georgie Soros. He spends a lot of time
making very sensible observations about the dismal (pseudo)-science of
economics. Reminiscent of the old but true adage that all economists laid end
to end cannot even predict the past. So Georgie, after winding us all up with
cold reason (larded with helpings of mumbo-jumbo), proceeds to arrive at exactly the
wrong conclusion. Which only goes to re-prove the irrefutable hypothesis that
intelligence and wisdom are frequently contra-indicative. Intelligence may be a
necessary but sure as heck is not a sufficient condition.
Georgie
postulates that on present course, Europe will become a German satrapy (das
Hinterland). Eine Deutsche Hegemonie trotz sich. All on account of present and
continuing massive and unsustainable current account imbalances between Germany
and Club Med. Target2 claims ad infinitum (not to mention the ECB’s nightmare
balance sheet). As night follows day, busted Club Med banks become the
corollary. Indeed, Georgie, that is the very underlying disease to which we are
a daily witness. Capital flight heads for the high ground (I’ll bet yours has).
The Greeks will vote in a Samaras/Venizelos coalition (says Georgie) but after
three more months of ramped up austerity, they’ll crack (and presumably go for
Default Mark II – this time including all debts owed to other Eurozone entities
and Christine’s IMF’d). To avoid that unpleasant outcome, Soros (echoing Rajoy,
Monti, Obama/Cameron, plus the little choir-boys Barroso and Von Rumply) tells
Frau Angela that all Euro-Deposits must be mutualized into a grand Euro-FDIC
with central regulation of all Euro-banks. (Plus of course a swingeing
financial transactions tax to be levied on the City of London to pay for it).
In other words, German credit must be deployed for all less creditworthy
borrowers/issuers/Euro-dead-beats. George sums it up, “We need to do whatever
we can to convince Germany to show leadership and preserve the European Union
as the fantastic object that it used to be. The future of Europe depends on
it.”
There
you have it. Germany to debase all it holds most dear for a “fantastic object”.
Does little Georgie understand the literal meaning of the English word
“fantastic”? The evidence suggests not. Isn’t fantasy and object(ivity)
something of a Eur'-Oxymoron, George? Terrible shame how the real world and its
immutable laws of physics and human behaviour always test the fanciful
fantasists at some point (and finds them wanting).
“Nein,
Nein, Nein” die Kanzlerin hat nachdrücklich geaufschreien!
Daniel
Hannan, MEP for the wealthiest part of the UK, who has very first-hand
knowledge of Brussels kant and BS, tells it like it is. Fat chance anything
remotely smacking of comparable wisdom will emerge from 10/11 Downing Street
nor from the Clegg/Cable panto donkey, nor heaven forbid from the White
House/US Treasury. Just more pathetic bleats for a plan to fix the Euro-crisis
(As if, were there such a feasible plan, it hasn’t already been thought of, run
up den Deutschen Flaggenmast and received the Nein, Nein, Nein semaphore.
Hinauf sehen Sie). But they cannot bring themselves to admit what is staring
them in the face. The Euro was conceived in fantasy and it will in due course
end in misery. Better therefore to manage its demise. You’d think that such
heresy might lead them to the fate of the Oxford Martyrs (Cranmer, Latimer and
Ridley).
Peter
Oborne goes to a whole new level of trenchancy in assigning blame for this epic
mess. He’s right.
We
are observing (and no doubt in some cases unhappily participating in) the most
devastating financial slo-mo train wreck in our respective lifetimes. At least
since the Gold Standard and Weimar fell. But in response, that “fantastic
object” the EU and its fellow traveler the Eurozone, are adrift, rudderless,
careening, listing, taking on water, foundering, and desperately trying to claw
their way off a lee shore. All while there is no skipper on the bridge.
I
return to what I consider the only “wise” (as opposed to “intelligent”)
solution, as prescribed in a previous missive (and for which I claim no
authorship). Germany must (re-)adopt the Deuro. Invite the Dutch, Finns and
perhaps the Austrians (even the Danes?) to join up under the lead of the BuBank
and float upwards against a Club-Med Euro (which maybe we should rename the
“Franco” in a genuflection to Gallic amour-propre). It won’t be pretty but it
might at least obviate the Hegemony from which quite clearly and sensibly Das
Volk recoils (quite aside from not guaranteeing every dead-beat-Euro in
creation). They know a fantastic object when they see one. However, I’m not
betting my few remaining Euro’s on this outcome happening any time soon. The
Euro-Ship and the lee shore look more likely to remain on course and in the
story line for a while to come.
No comments:
Post a Comment