The
Finns are not going to follow Die Haus-Frau over the cliff (maybe).
Just
in case my tirades against le vieux ennemi is a sure sign of bigotry, please
read this obituary. A Frenchman of great stature, courage, resourcefulness,
humour and self-abnegation. Un vrai héros. A giant among pygmies.
This
is Monti achieving reform success. Frightening to think what failure might look
like.
Look
at the photo of von Rumply. A pitiful figure of a man. The President of Europe.
Hard not to understand why even little Tony Bliar is so peeved at being passed
over – for that! A man who couldn’t induce fear in a pork pie. Don’t even get
me started on Barroso.
Die
Kapitulation der Kanzlerin. What does it mean and why did she do it? Why on
earth did she give that petulant little nobody, Francois Hollande de deux
maîtresses, the grinning pleasure of telling the world dass er ihn zu blinzeln
geaufzwingen hat? Especially after all the fighting words to the Bundestag
earlier last week. She may well have signed her own political death warrant.
For what? But Richard; for Wales??!!
I
guess it can be interpreted as one more kick of the can down the road. The
sound of a death rattle. But look what it did to Euro12: the Italians were all
over ihrem Jungen. Busted morale at home and a huge fillip to the enemy camp.
To watch Monti, after failing to get any serious reform going in Italy,
gloating at her must have brought back pictures of Mussolini hanging by his
heels.
There are possible explanations, I
suppose. Merkel is scared to death of being accused of bringing the
Euro-house-of-straw down. So she’d rather run the clock a little longer. Bury
the deal in the small print. Rely on the Dutch, the Finns and maybe the
Austrians to do the dirty work for her. (Remind them of Der Anschluß). Pray for rain
to wash the game out. The number of players left on the creditor side of the
EFSF/ESM ledger is dwindling by the day. The mendicant numbers swell
correspondingly. On which side will La Belle France end up when the chips are
down? (I can hazard a guess at that one). Socialism writ large – eventually you
really do run out of other peoples’ money to spend. (See the USA and the UK).
Maybe the judges in funny red hats in Karlsruhe will do for her what John
Roberts of SCOTUS fame could not do for the good of the USA. There’s many a
slip …. And most of the time they’re all talking promises, promises (which is
cheap talk as we know). They seem to have figured out how to spend the same
Euro thrice at least.
So
we’ve arrived at another Euro-vacuum. The can duly kicked, more empty promises
made, the Troika in black suits heading for Athens where they’ll find the books
still cooked and the gap between wishful thinking and fiscal reality widening
by the hour. Another big slug of Euro-cash will be needed to allow the Greeks
to continue vital imports, which they may or may not pay for. Another haircut
all around is a fighting certainty. Summer silly season is upon us when the
Euro great and good all repair to their seasonal villas and pretend it will all
go away come September.
We’ll
have to wait and see if they are right. Meanwhile I have to confess I mis-read
the intestinal fortitude der Deutscher Führerin.
What
is it about City bankers? Barclays’ Diamond (American) gone; Lloyds’ Daniels
(American) gone, Lloyds’ Horsa-Ortario (Portuguese) still recovering, Barclays’
Agius (token Brit) gone, RBS’ Fred the Shred Goodwin (Scot) gone to the
pillory, title stripped, bowler hat punched through. Can’t the Square Mile
generate any native born world class bank execs these days?
I
wish you all a very happy July 4th wherever you may be.
Simon
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