It’s
been a long cold winter in the EU and Eurozone; during which the hiatus in your
poor scribbler’s offerings have been to allow the emergence of a trend beyond
that of Mario 1 Draghi declaring “it will be enough”. Enough at least to
outlive the long cold winter of the Europolity’s discontent, for Richard III to
be exhumed from his 600 plus year slumber ‘neath a Leicester car park (still in want of a horse), for
Mario 2 Monti’s star to go into permanent eclipse behind the Beppe Grillo
comet, for an anti-Euro party to become nascent in Germany und für Die
Kanklerin, Frau Tante Angela, to contemplate her demise in a mere six months,
even for Cyprus to acquire a non-Communist government and to request a bail out from
Greece, and last but by no means least, for Eurozone unemployment to grind
inexorably upward to 12% and for youff (sic) discontent at its drowning prospects to go
on a slow boil. If this is Eu/Zone success then may the new régime in the
Vatican save them from a real crisis.
Who
will govern Italy, if indeed any part of it is governable at all? A nation
state malgré lui. Can ever more of the great Italian economy go off the books
or be coöpted by the various divisions of the Mafia. How many divisions does
the Pope have? Can Francois the Dutchman save himself with adventurism on the
road from Timbuktu? Can Rajoy stay out of jail? Can Barroso and Van Rumply
repeat their mantra one more time and retain even a semblance of credibility (I
do know the answer to that rhetorical flourish)?
We
are on the road to discovering whether Uncle Milton (Friedman not John) was
nearly correct about the Euro or whether the Champs Elysée will become the
sunny uplands of the great project. Were I a bettor, it would not be hard to
choose where to place my last few Euro’s.
The
can kicked down the road, into the long grass, the dénouement, Armageddon and
Götterdämmerung are all back in play. Ariadne ist auf Naxos, Angela is ref but ihre Pfeife may no
longer be audible. Remember that the putative policy of the new German party is
to allow the Neue DeutscheMark (taking the Orangemen, the hardy Nordics, the
Luxemburgers and the Austrians with them) to float upward against the rump Club
Med Euro. How will they poll?
Meanwhile,
back in the AA UK, the rickety Coalition of Dodgy Dave and Nick Cloggy looks to
be tottering on its last legs, as the Huhne’s go to the pokey for their sins.
We will be watching and offering facetious thoughts; though that hardly seems appropriate for such a calamity as our European friends have visited upon themselves. The CHF and the NKr remain attractive funk-holes for all that dinero the tax man allows to escape his sticky embrace. They will hold up better than Beppe’s Nuova-Lira.
Simon
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