Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Islands in the Stream

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/9957999/Cyprus-has-finally-killed-myth-that-EMU-is-benign.html


Some rambling thoughts from Ambrose E-P. Including the idea that the EU is not benign. (Shurely not – Ed). And some thought it was essentially a French-German post WWII construct to establish joint Hegemonie throughout Europe (and beyond) without the need for another Franco-Prussian War. If Serbia (or was it Austria-Hungary) can start a really big war that outflanked La Ligne Maginot in a heartbeat; think what mighty Slovenia might wreak.

The haircut to Cypriot bank depositors – at least those plutocrats whose balance exceeds 100,000 in the two big Cyprus Banks - is definitely not going to be a careful trim around the ears, even a short back ‘n sides. It’s going to be the full Monty and a shining bald pate. Not least because “capital controls” still apply to the remaindered balances. Which means that “we’ve taken a big chunk of your money; and the rest we just may let you have back, sometime, maybe, but only when Angela, Christine and one of the Mario’s says it’s OK”. The silence from Moscow is deafening. The Troika gallops on, corpses to left of it, corpses to right of it, all the way to the Russian artillery. Mi’Lords Raglan and Cardigan would be proud.

According to officialdom, all is as well as can be in Euro-Fantasyland, post Cyprus. (It is a template, it is not a template – we’ll keep you guessing). The Russian dodgy depositor/crooks are serendipitous collateral damage. However, Francois the sauce Hollandaise is screaming about too much austerity (and his corrupt, mendacious Minister of Anti-Corruption), the Dutch are dumping on the Luxemburgers as no better than Cyprus with European dodgy-money, and the rest of Club Med is in a total funk; waiting for the Cyprus style other Jill-boot to drop on their weakest banks. The Cyprus FinMin has wisely ex-fenestrated himself, on the advice of the Archbish of Nicosia or on his own recognizance that he has beggared his people on an unprecedented scale at the diktat of the terrible Troika, after comprehensively failing to get his Uncle Vanya to double down. Mr. Anastasiades obviously now has the half-life of a Gerald Rattner prawn sandwich. Life in Cyprus is going to become very, very unpleasant, as the privations and recriminations build. The witch hunts against those wise enough to try to get over the moat before the drawbridge was raised with their folding Euro’s and reach the sanctuary of a Swiss bank will rise to a crescendo that will rend the polity along wholly new non-Ottoman fault lines. Misery will be relentless, pending an ignominious Eurexit as the terms of all the Troika’s new hard money are serially breached and the infamous debt ratio tends to the infinite as the denominator approaches zero. In the meantime there is stunned silence from the people of Cyprus as the wasteland is surveyed. There’s no doubt now that Metropolitan Chrisostomos should emulate Makarios and combine church and state, and help the poor souls who live in the Cyprus sun. Maybe even make nice with the Ottomans to the north.

We confess we were totally wrong about the fragrant Christine at the IMF being a shill for the French FinMin. Clearly she has become the Bu-Bank’s fifth columnist and resident in DC. Another poke aux yeux for M. Trierweiler. (Hell hath no fury like a Ségolène dédaignée). She’s signed up for the full-on austerity cheveux-chemise à l’allemande. Looks beautiful aux crinière d’acier et un foulard d’Hermès. Maybe because, like her former boss, shorty Psychozy, she’s having her collar felt by M. Clouseau of the Deuxième over some dodgy financial dealings back in the halcyon gay Paree days of hanging out at L’Elysée with the lovely Carla. Safer in Berlin with new bff Frau Angela and her Bu-Bank chorus line; all singing about bail-in’s to the strains of the Horst Wessel Lied (at least when viewed from a Nicosia point of view).

The other fragrant, lovely Cristina de la Casa Rosada continues to bang on about Las Malvinas Argentinas, (while busily trying to stiff her few remaining foreign creditors in New York). Not nice for the President of friendly, neighbouring Uruguay to have called her "an ugly hag" and the late, lamented and adulated Nestor "the one-eyed one". With her buddy Chavez having metaphorically left Caracas in a box, she and her other friends in Havana, Castro Bros. are looking a trifle isolated. Next stop Pyonyang to ask the Callow Leader how it’s done.


I’m not sure Frau Tante Angela doing some lederhosen slapping with Vlad, Vlad and inspecting Ukrainian lady protesters naked to the waist is good for her image as Machiavelli mit Schaftstiefeln. Die Prinzessin weiß zum Besten, ich schätze.


Well, I guess it was only a matter of time. After all the Nazi name calling and Hitler effigy burning nach Athen, it had to be expected that the Greeks would put their finger on a new way to embarrass the Teutonic Goths. One wonders why it took them so long. Is there an example here for France? Back rent from the Gestapo for four years in the Ritz a la Place Vendôme. Perhaps the USA should call in the Marshall Plan advances too. Sorry Italy, Il Duce probably messed up jumping on this band-wagon. In fact the Cypriots have a claim for some bombing by Rome and the Abyssinians have run out of abacus beads totting up their invoice. The Greeks might also want to charge Italy (Rome branch) for the sack of Syracusa and the assassination of Archimedes. Mighty little Malta MC is staying below the parapet for the moment, waiting for the bank run shoe to fall once Slovenia goes down in flames and should be totting up the bill for Berlin’s 1940’s ministrations. What a lot of Euro-accounts to be settled. And the mighty was designed by Dictator Kohl to ensure war never returned to fractious Europe. Democracy at work Prussian style.

This Euro-Farce is set to run and run.

Simon

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