The
Greeks have voted but, as always with EU matters, they got it badly wrong the
first time. So they must suffer the mandatory do-over. Likely they’ll get it
wrong again. Christine’s sky is going to fall on all the Euro-Chicken Littles.
M.
et Mme. Carla Bruni duly vacated l’Élysée never to be heard of in polite
society again. Tant triste.
There
are now countless (count’em) Euro Chickens in full cry ohne Kopf. No one knows
what’s coming; especially Mr. Tsipras. Friends tell me that the Iron
Chancellorin will have a Damascene experience at one second to midnight on the
way to the BuBank and stand Weidmann down; while she tells Mario at the ECB to
accept all and any collateral, however dodgy, print like he’s never printed and
bail, bail, bail. Ship unlimited Deutsche-Euro’s (the non-dodgy kind) to Athens
and tell them not to mention it. All in a solid day’s work in Euro-Solidarity,
all in Germany’s best interest anyway, have a nice day. Problem solved. Except
my best guess is that Die Frau ain’t gunna do it. Dieses Mädchen für
umdrehenden ist nicht. German constitution says verboten. Die Frau follow
constitution – stay out of Spandau.
Going
out on a limb, I’m with Jeremy Warner. The Athens sky will fall before the
do-over comes to pass. The canter on the Greek banks will become a gallop. They
will close sine die. A very hard landing indeed. Italian and French banks will
join Spanish banks in purgatory. It will make the collapse of Weimar look like
a walk in the Bois de Boulogne. Greek economy returns to barter. The
neo-Ottomans cannot believe their luck. Looks very dodgy for Cyprus too.
The
Greek goose is arguably at the very well-done stage. Can the other Club Med
banks whistle past the graveyard without running out of paper-Euro’s? Can the
Clearing House take the strain without the BuBank closing its window (and the
BuBankers jumping through it)? Will it be sauve qui peût for Italians, Spanish,
French, Maltese (don’t forget the poor Maltesers close to the Libyan coast) and
capital flight across the northern borders à l’outrance? Here in Luzern in der
Schweiz the doors of UBS and Credit Suisse look forbidding but are doubtless
open to anyone with a pocketful of hard currency (the Euro?). Down in Lugano it
could become a mêlée. For the moment happily the Swiss seem to be accepting
Euros; at least for a cup of coffee. Die Dämpfer jetzt gleiten dem See darüber.
Cowbells chime as ever. Very serene scene here in Switzerland.
Hats
off to the Irish who seem to be dodging the eye of the storm. Must be the
bracing quality of the north Atlantic, North Sea and Baltic.
We
are now most likely very close to the beginning of the end for the Euro. It
will take supreme statesmanship from Merkel, Draghi, Lagarde, little
tax-cheater Geithner (AWOL), Hollande, Monti, Rajoy and others to avert a train
wreck (the SBB will run on time to take us to Wengen tomorrow). Forget the
Greeks – they should be focusing on the post-mortem. Not to mention Juncker von
Juncker and Herr Schäuble – who seem less than well disposed towards Club Med.
It’s hard to imagine this cast of characters getting any kind of act together
this side of hell freezing over Europe.
Le
ciel se tombe.
Simon
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